Cost Effectiveness Analysis of a Polygenic Risk Tailored Breast Cancer Screening Programme in Singapore [post]

Jerry Zeng Yang Wong, Jia Hui Chai, Yen Shing Yeoh, Nur Khaliesah Mohamed Riza, Jenny Liu, Yik-Ying Teo, Hwee Lin Wee, Mikael Hartman
2021 unpublished
BackgroundThis study aimed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of a breast cancer screening programme that incorporates genetic testing using breast cancer associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in Singapore, against the current biennial mammogram only screening programme.MethodsA Markov model was used to compare the costs and health outcomes of the current screening programme, against a polygenic risk tailored screening programme that advises long term screening depending polygenic
more » ... sk. The model took the perspective of the healthcare system, with a time horizon of 40 years, following women from the age of 35 to 74. Epidemiological and cost data was taken from Asian studies. An annual discount rate of 3% was used. The model outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), calculated from the difference in costs per quality adjusted life year (QALY). Scenarios with varying risk thresholds for each polygenic risk group were examined. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess parameter uncertainty.ResultsThe ICER for a polygenic risk tailored breast cancer screening programme, compared to the current biennial mammogram only screening programme, was -3,713.80, with incremental costs <0 and incremental effects >0. Scenario analysis of different polygenic risk cutoffs showed that the ICERs remain negative, with all ICERs falling within the south east quadrant of the cost effectiveness plane, indicating that tailored screening dominates mammogram only screening with lower costs and higher QALYs. This suggests that a polygenic risk tailored breast cancer screening programme is cost effective, being cheaper than the current mammogram only programme while bringing no additional harm to women.ConclusionResults from this cost effectiveness analysis show that polygenic risk tailored screening is cost effective with an ICER of –3,713.80 SGD/QALY. Tailored screening remains cost effective even when varying percentile cutoffs for each risk group. While the results look promising for incorporating polygenic risk into the current breast cancer screening programme, further studies should be conducted due to various limitations.
doi:10.21203/ fatcat:oqq7wx2jybcstax7uqdwbjo56q