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Climate model simulations of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) behavior for the last millennium demonstrate interdecadal to centennial changes in ENSO variability that can arise purely from stochastic processes internal to the climate system. However, the instrumental record of ENSO does not have the temporal coverage needed to capture the full range of natural ENSO variability observed in long, unforced climate model simulations. Here we demonstrate a probabilistic framework to quantifydoi:10.31223/osf.io/yp49u fatcat:plfls4ivxbd6zhooape7kbqfye