One Size Does Not Fit All: Proposal for a Prior-adapted BIC [chapter]

Jan-Willem Romeijn, Rens van de Schoot, Herbert Hoijtink
2012 Probabilities, Laws, and Structures  
This paper presents a refinement of the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). While the original BIC selects models on the basis of complexity and fit, the so-called prior-adapted BIC allows us to choose among statistical models that differ on three scores: fit, complexity, and model size. The prior-adapted BIC can therefore accommodate comparisons among statistical models that differ only in the admissible parameter space, e.g., for choosing among models with different constraints on the
more » ... ters. The paper ends with an application of this idea to a well-known puzzle from the psychology of reasoning, the conjunction fallacy.
doi:10.1007/978-94-007-3030-4_7 fatcat:q3mbp22xjzh3pgfktn6opebq5a