This paper seeks to move beyond the general base-level of violence that is regularly present in cartel politics in order to understand the specific causal mechanisms behind dramatic surges of cartel related violence. With violence as the dependent variable, this study identifies two prominent theories that seek to explain cartel violence, and tests their independent variables against empirical evidence. By using a longitudinal comparative analysis, this paper tested whether the unconditional

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... te repression of cartel activity or the end of a state-sponsored protection bracket resulted in a surge in cartel violence. Based on homicides per 100,000 inhabitants as well as the distinct analysis of cartel-state conflict from inter- and intra- cartel violence, this paper finds a strong causal connection between unconditional state repression and increased cartel violence. This paper additionally finds that while the breaking of patron-client ties may foster an environment that is especially prone to violence, it is not sufficient to cause a surge in violence.