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Leading Indicators of the Business Cycle: Dynamic Logit Models for OECD Countries and Russia
Social Science Research Network
In this paper, I develop the leading indicators of the business cycle turning points exploiting the quarterly panel dataset comprising OECD countries and Russia over the 1980-2013 period. Contrasting to the previous studies, I combine data on OECD countries and Russia into a single dataset and develop universal models suitable for the entire sample with a quality of predictions comparable to the analogues of single-country models. On the basis of conventional dynamic discrete dependent variabledoi:10.2139/ssrn.2600847 fatcat:o6sgi3twofcanj2fsu4zrxw2zi