Risk Premia: Short and Long-Term

Stanislav Khrapov
2012 Social Science Research Network  
Hansen (2011) considers risks associated with cash flows at alternative horizons. He shows that in the long run many investor preference specifications do not imply risk premia substantially different from those implied by simple expected utility model. The main result of this paper is that the generalized disappointment aversion model of Routledge & Zin (2010) amplifies risk premium not only in the short run but also for assets that pay off long into the future. The reason behind this result
more » ... ehind this result is that this utility alters the risk-neutral distribution of future economy outcomes relative to the expected utility. The latter shares the risk-neutral distribution with more general Epstein & Zin (1989) recursive utility. I also analyze the risk premium term structure implied by the three utilities and find that its slope critically depends on the volatility of the transient payoff component with high enough volatility leading to negatively sloped term structure.
doi:10.2139/ssrn.1987644 fatcat:fzkxqnwaiffnxdvlsgxtcymkcy