The Tourism Demand of Nonlinear Combination Forecasting based on Time Series Method and WNN

Yaping Wang
2015 International Journal of u- and e- Service, Science and Technology  
The combination forecasting model IOWGA-EMD-ARMA-WNN is proposed in this paper. The randomness, periodicity and tendency of the original data are showed by EMD decomposition in EMD-ARMA model. WNN combines the advantages of wavelet analysis and BP neural network and improves the learning efficiency and forecasting accuracy. The weight of combination model is decided by forecasting precision of EMD-ARMA model and WNN model based on IOWGA method. At last, the IOWGA-EMD-ARMA-WNN model is used to
more » ... recast monthly inboard tourism demand of China and the results show that the proposed combination model has better performance on forecasting accuracy compared with the other models.
doi:10.14257/ijunesst.2015.8.3.29 fatcat:5lqhnxk4wvd75kfwtfg6w5ab5m