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We evaluate susceptibility to lava flows on Mt. Etna based on specially designed die-toss experiments using probabilities for type, time and place of activation from the volcano's 400-year recorded history and current studies on its known fractures and fissures. The types of activations were forcast using a table of probabilities for events, typed by duration and volume of ejecta. Lengths of time were represented by the number of activations to expect within a given time-frame, calculatedarXiv:1310.3360v1 fatcat:xxaqyhkpora7pi2bocw2prnhqu