Capacity of subway station is an important factor to ensure the safety and improve the transportation efficiency. In this paper, based on the M/G/C/C state-dependent queuing model, a probabilistic selection optimization model is proposed to assess the capacity of the station. The goal of the model is to maximize the output rate of the station, and the decision variables of the model are the selection results of the passengers. Finally, this paper takes a subway station of Shanghai Metro as a

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... e study and calculates the optimal selection probability. The proposed model could be used to analyze the average waiting time, congestion probability, and other evaluation indexes; at the same time, it verifies the validity and practicability of the model.