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The strategic transition from fossil energy to renewable energy is an irreversible global trend, but the pace of renewable energy deployment and the path of cost reduction are uncertain. In this paper, a two-factor learning-curve model of wind power and photovoltaics (PV) was established based on the latest empirical data from the United States, and the paths of cost reduction and corresponding social impacts were explored through scenario analysis. The results demonstrate that both of thedoi:10.3390/su11082310 fatcat:5llka4ysa5czxjunlk56lgyjva