The Importance of Livestock Demography and Infrastructure in Driving Foot and Mouth Disease Dynamics

Kendra Gilbertson, Peter Brommesson, Amanda Minter, Clayton Hallman, Ryan S. Miller, Katie Portacci, Stefan Sellman, Michael J. Tildesley, Colleen T. Webb, Tom Lindström, Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson
2022 Life  
Transboundary animal diseases, such as foot and mouth disease (FMD) pose a significant and ongoing threat to global food security. Such diseases can producearge, spatially complex outbreaks. Mathematical models are often used to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics and create response plans for possible disease introductions. Model assumptions regarding transmission behavior of premises and movement patterns ofivestock directly impact our understanding of the ecological drivers of outbreaks
more » ... nd how to best control them. Here, we investigate the impact that these assumptions have on model predictions of FMD outbreaks in the U.S. using models ofivestock shipment networks and disease spread. We explore the impact of changing assumptions about premises transmission behavior, both by including within-herd dynamics, and by accounting for premises type and increasing the accuracy of shipment predictions. We find that the impact these assumptions have on outbreak predictions isess than the impact of the underlyingivestock demography, but that they are important for investigating some response objectives, such as the impact on trade. These results suggest that demography is a key ecological driver of outbreaks and is critical for making robust predictions but that understanding management objectives is also important when making choices about model assumptions.
doi:10.3390/life12101604 fatcat:vcg7kjezcvafzf6uso6o77mkpu