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The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Mortality expectations and smoking decisions
2007
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we assess the accuracy of subjective beliefs about mortality and objectively estimated probabilities for individuals in the same sample. Overall, subjective beliefs and objective probabilities are very close. However, there are differences conditional on behaviors, with current smokers being relatively optimistic and never smokers relatively pessimistic in their assessments. In the aggregate, individuals accurately predict longevity, but at the
doi:10.1007/s11166-007-9019-4
fatcat:jlhjnzsfhzf2fgfeggsdx34o54