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Asymptotic calibration
1998
Biometrika
Can we forecast the probability of an arbitrary sequence of events happening so that the stated probability of an event happening is close to its empirical probability? We can view this prediction problem as a game played against Nature, where at the beginning of the game Nature picks a data sequence and the forecaster picks a forecasting algorithm. If the forecaster is not allowed to randomise, then Nature wins; there will always be data for which the forecaster does poorly. This paper shows
doi:10.1093/biomet/85.2.379
fatcat:pzehxct6ijdbnhxt4ciaawi7ii