A latent trawl process model for extreme values

Ragnhild C. Noven, Almut E. D. Veraart, Axel Gandy
2018 Journal of Energy Markets  
This paper presents a new model for characterising temporal dependence in exceedances above a threshold. The model is based on the class of trawl processes, which are stationary, infinitely divisible stochastic processes. We review properties of trawl processes in the context of statistical modelling, and introduce a new representation that enables exact simulation for discrete observations. The model for extreme values is constructed by embedding a trawl process in a hierarchical framework,
more » ... ch ensures that the marginal distribution is generalised Pareto, as expected from classical extreme value theory. We also consider a modified version of this model that works with a wider class of generalised Pareto distributions, and has the advantage of separating marginal and temporal dependence properties. The model is illustrated by applications to environmental time series, and it is shown that the model offers considerable flexibility in capturing the dependence structure of extreme value data.
doi:10.21314/jem.2018.179 fatcat:rmn5plxwsnhynb7aayorsiexdy