We examine the commercialization of university inventions in licensing to both start-up firms and established firms, and seek to determine when licensing to start-ups is more likely. We construct a theoretical model that predicts start-ups are more likely if their opportunity cost of development and commercialization is lower or if the technology transfer officer's (TTO) opportunity cost of searching for a partner among established firms is higher. Using data from the Association of University

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... echnology Managers, the National Venture Capital Association Yearbook, and the National Research Council, we find that inventor quality and measures of past TTO success (age, the number of disclosures, gross royalties) are all positively and significantly related to the number of licenses to both start-ups and established firms. However, we also find that start-up activity is positively and significantly related to the S&P 500, but negatively and significantly related to the interest rate and rate of return to venture capital. for helpful comments and discussions. We also thank the TTOs, university administrators, and licensing consultants whose willingness to talk to us about their licensing experience was helpful in formulating our theoretical model.