Spatial disaggregation in transport modelling -- Modelling Europe with more than 100,000 travel zones

Jan Ihrig
European transport policy pursues several targets, such as reducing CO2 emissions and improving the efficiency of transport systems. In order to investigate the effectiveness as well as the welfare impacts of potential policy measures, transport models are applied in policy consulting. However, the travel zones used in recent transport models operating at European scale are often too large, mainly due to complexity and data availability. These models can provide only limited insights into
more » ... insights into regional traffic flows. In this thesis, an innovative transport modelling approach called HIPAT is introduced. HIPAT is based on disaggregated and homogeneous travel zones, and thus facilitates the modelling of European traffic flows, including long-distance, regional and short-distance passenger trips with a single, consistent transport model. This enables European policy makers to assess also regional welfare impacts when prioritising, for instance, investments in the trans-European transport network. The quantum leap from 1,500 travel zones at NUTS-3 level to more than 100,000 at LAU-2 level, while simultaneously reducing the model runtime from several days to one hour, can be facilitated by solving the trip distribution problem very efficiently at different spatial levels. In comparison to recent European transport models, the consistency of the overall modelling approach was also improved, by integrating the trip distribution, the modal split and the network assignment models. Within the last nine years most parts of this thesis were researched in the course of the author's involvement as a transport modelling and data specialist in the two European research projects ETISplus and HIGH-TOOL. In a first step, a modelling database was established covering regional indicators at NUTS-3 level and harmonised mobility indicators from travel surveys at country level. In a second step, the currently applied four-step transport modelling approach was intensively revised and the IPAT passenger transport model was developed. Its [...]
doi:10.5445/ir/1000088509 fatcat:boug6izcd5fodlnfuqakwsuqkm