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Monte Carlo simulation is an effective method for evaluating complex systems. Besides estimating the performance level of the system through Monte Carlo method, it is more wanted to identify key factors in system operation so as to improve or redesign the system. When estimating the performance level, in order to obtain sufficient evaluation accuracy while keeping time cost as low as possible, its relation with confidence level and number of simulation runs is explained according to probabilitydoi:10.1016/j.proeng.2014.12.643 fatcat:wvv62folxvandlkamebklgbvnm