Reexamining computational support for intelligence analysis: a functional design for a future capability

James Llinas, Galina Rogova, Kevin Barry, James W. Scrofani, James Llinas, Timothy P. Hanratty
2018 Next-Generation Analyst VI  
Create an Argument Map to make analytic assumptions, intelligence gaps, or arguments more transparent. CONDITIONS: Given all class handouts to date, appropriate references, an operational framework scenario, and in-class discussion. STANDARDS: Create an argument map that incorporates critical and creative thinking and basic and diagnostic structured analytic techniques in order to provide clearer ACH understanding and validate the ACH. premises to be true and the conclusion false. In other
more » ... , the relationship of support between premises and conclusion is a tentative one, potentially defeated by additional information." 2 By the way, we see the (necessary) balancing of Pro and Contra arguments as another good feature of these argumentation methods; to some degree this is a built-in preventative to the human foible of confirmation bias. Argumentation types Methods Prototypes 3 Abstract Argumentation formal logic, theorem proof, and based on the notion of argument acceptance and attack) Epistemic Practical Assumption-based Deductive reasoning to support beliefs Abductive reasoning to support actions Arguments are deductions based on a set of assumptions and inference rules CISpaces, Carneades Araucaria and Various others Hybrid Methods Combination of logic and probability or belief Assumption based probability/belief based argumentation. A probabilistic extension of abstract argumentation.
doi:10.1117/12.2304058 fatcat:zuostyx5ynggxhhzarc6rleeny