Forecast of July 2015—New Jersey: prospects for the long term

Nancy H. Mantell, Michael L. Lahr
2015
The July 2015 R/ECON forecast shows more rapid growth for the state in 2015 than in 2014. Nonagricultural employment rose by 0.7 percent—or 27,700 jobs in 2014—after growth of 1.2 percent or 45,100 jobs in 2013. Growth will improve to 1.1 percent in 2015 and 2016 and then average 0.8 percent over the rest of the forecast period, which goes through 2045. At these rates the job base will return to the peak level reached in the first quarter of 2008 in mid-2017. By the end of the forecast period
more » ... e forecast period in 2045 the employment base will be nearly a million jobs, and 23 percent, greater than its level at the peak.1 These projections assume no specific recession/recovery cycle disrupts the state's or nation's growth. Although this seems rather far-fetched given that the average business cycle (peak to peak) in the U.S. since World War II has lasted about 24 quarters and the current cycle is now in its seventh year, a caveat to keep in mind is that this is a long term TREND forecast; it does not purport to indicate at what point(s) CYCLES may occur.
doi:10.7282/t38c9z28 fatcat:kot6efb64vfqrfplgpqkihcxfe