Portfolio Analysis of the Future Dutch Generating Mix [chapter]

Jaap C. Jansen, Luuk Beurskens
2008 Analytical Methods for Energy Diversity & Security  
This chapter presents results of an application of Markowitz Portfolio Theory (MPT) to the future portfolio of electricity generating technologies in the Netherlands in the year 2030. Projections of two base-case generating mixes and general scenario assumptions have been taken from two specifi c scenarios designed by the Dutch Central Planning Offi ce, i.e. 'Strong Europe' (SE) and 'Global Economy' (GE). This chapter focuses on the electricity costrisk dimension of the Dutch portfolio of
more » ... ting technologies and the potential for additional deployment of renewable generating technologies to enhance the effi ciency of base-case generating mixes in year 2030. The major results of this study are as follows. (1) In both scenarios, the base-case generating mix is not very effi cient. Graphical analysis suggests that diversifi cation may yield up to 20% risk reduction at no extra cost. (2) Promotion of renewable energy can greatly decrease the portfolio risk. Defi ning mixes without renewables results in signifi cantly riskier mixes with relatively small impact on portfolio costs. (3) Because of its relative low risk and high potential, large-scale implementation of offshore wind can reduce cost risk of the Dutch generating portfolio. Only in the GE scenario is a (small) upward effect on the expected Dutch electricity cost in year 2030 foreseen. In an SE world large-scale implementation of offshore wind is projected to have a downward effect on Dutch electricity prices in 2030. c0006 c0006 s0010 s0010 p0010 p0010 s0130 s0130 p0840 p0840 CHAPTER 6 Abstract CH006.indd 117 CH006.indd 117 7/16/2008 8:26:26 PM 7/16/2008 8:26:26 PM
doi:10.1016/b978-0-08-056887-4.00006-8 fatcat:5ztce447cfac3lrpoxbxvs2x24