Clinical utility of a computed tomography-based receiver operating characteristic curve model for the diagnosis of COVID-19

Xiang Li, Feng Yuan, Zhenguang Zhang, Juntao Yang, Jing Zhang, Zhipeng Li, Yan Peng, Yuanming Jiang, Wenfang Yi, Jiyao Ma, Wei Zhao, Bo He (+2 others)
2021 Annals of Palliative Medicine  
The outbreak of COVID-19 poses a major and urgent threat to global public health. CT findings associated with COVID-19 pneumonia from initial diagnosis until patient recovery. This study aimed to retrospectively analyze abnormal lung changes following initial computed tomography (CT) among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Yunnan, and to evaluate the effectiveness of a chest CT-based model for the diagnosis of COVID-19. One hundred and nine patients with COVID-19 pneumonia
more » ... VID-19 pneumonia confirmed with the positive new coronavirus nucleic acid antibody who exhibited abnormal findings on initial CT were retrospectively analyzed. Thereafter, changes in the number, distribution, shape, and density of the lesions were observed. Further, the epidemiological, clinical, and CT imaging findings (+/-) were correlated. Following univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated for significant factors, and models were established to evaluate the diagnostic ability of CT for COVID-19. Our results showed significant differences between patients with COVID-19 in epidemiological history (first, second, and third generation), clinical type (moderate, severe, and critical), and abnormal CT imaging characteristics (+/-) (P<0.05). Moreover, significant differences in abnormal CT imaging characteristics, including region, extent, and focus, were observed between the first generation and the other generations (P<0.05). For the diagnosis of COVID-19, the areas under the ROC curves for logistic regression models 1, 2, and 3 were 0.8016 (95% CI: 0.6759-0.9274), 0.9132 (95% CI: 0.8571-0.9693), and 0.9758 (95% CI: 0.9466-1), respectively. The ROC curve regression model based on chest CT signs displayed a high diagnostic value for COVID-19.
doi:10.21037/apm-20-2603 pmid:33725765 fatcat:767w2yvxqfc2xk3nchvzwejvdi