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REVISING PROBABILITIES ACCORDING T O NEW INFORMATION: A FUNDAMENTAL STOCHASTIC INTUITiON

unpublished

Probability judgements may have t o be revised if new information is available. From the mathematical perspective probability revisions are intimately connected t o the notion of conditional probability and Bayes' formula, a subsidiary concept and a t r i v i a l theorem respectively. Nevertheless empirical investigations i n subjects' understanding of probability do indicate t h a t people do not cope adequately w i t h situations involving probability revisions, if they have been taught t h e

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