Analytical Error Propagation in Four-Step Transportation Demand Models
Transportation demand models currently lack a rigorous and analytic treatment to quantify the error propagation from different sources through the models. The error of traffic forecasts is attributed to two main sources: the model specification error and the input variable measurement error. Since Four-Step Transportation Demand Model (FSTDM) is commonly used in practice but its error is not well-studied, the first part of the current study illustrates how the errors of the input variables as
... ll as of the model specification are propagated analytically step by step and how these errors interact to result in inaccurate traffic forecasts. Publications during candidature Conference papers 1. Hojjat Rezaee, Mahmoud Mesbah, Mark Hickman (2016). "Error Propagation in User Equilibrium Traffic Assignment: Comparing an Analytical Sensitivity-based Method with a Simulation-based Method". Paper presented at the 95 th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C. Publications included in this thesis No publications are included. Contributions by others to the thesis No contributions by others. Statement of parts of the thesis submitted to qualify for the award of another degree None. Acknowledgements Firstly, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my principle advisor, Dr. Mahmoud Mesbah, and my associate advisor, Prof. Mark Hickman, for the continuous support of my PhD study and related research, for his patience, motivation, and immense knowledge. His guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis report. Besides my advisor, I would like to thank my thesis review panel: Prof. David Lockington, and Prof. Carlo Prato, for their insightful comments and encouragement, but also for the hard questions which helped me to widen my research from various perspectives. Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family: my lovely wife, Zeinab, and to my dear parents and sister for supporting me spiritually throughout my studying and writing this thesis report.