Flood Forecasting with Uncertainty Using a Fully Automated Flood Model Chain: a Case Study for the City of Kulmbach

Md Nazmul Azim Beg, Jorge Leandro, Punit Bhola, Iris Konnerth, Kanwal Amin, Florian Koeck, Rita F. Carvalho, Markus Disse
Real time flood forecasting can help authorities in providing reliable warnings to the public. This process is, however, non-deterministic such that uncertainty sources need to be accounted before issuing forecasts. In the FloodEvac project, we have developed a tool which takes as inputs rainfall forecasts and links a hydrological with a hydraulic model for producing flood forecasts. The tool is able to handle calibration/validation of the hydrological model (LARSIM) and produces real-time
more » ... uces real-time flood forecast with associated uncertainty of flood discharges and flood extents. In this case study, we focus on the linkage with the hydrological model and on the real-time discharge forecasts generated.
doi:10.29007/jb27 fatcat:dcinhirrtbbjbgwtbbjwq3moze