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Under scenarios of urbanization coupled with increasing frequency and intensity of natural hazards, urban disaster risk is set to rise. Simulating future urban expansion can provide relevant information for the development of future exposure scenarios and the identification of targeted risk reduction and adaptation strategies. Here, we present an urban growth simulation for the coastal city of Monastir, Tunisia. The approach integrates local knowledge and a data-driven urban growth model todoi:10.1553/giscience_2019_01_s3 fatcat:eh7jlu6h5bft5iyufmwgs2qpwu