The Cusp Catastrophe Model of Major Accidents Based on Ideas of Black Swan and Its Application in Port Road Projects

Yanfeng Bai, Ling Zhang, Xuejun Wen
2015 Proceedings of the 2015 Information Technology and Mechatronics Engineering Conference   unpublished
The normal accident prediction models can't predict the occurrence of major accidents very well, so the cusp catastrophe model of major accidents is set up on the base of ideas of black swan and catastrophe theory. In the model, the main factors of major accidents are regarded as the controls parameters and the functional status of the system as the state parameter. The model has filled up the blank field of studying emergency in the black area. It is well explained by the model that the
more » ... state depends on the interaction between human factors and material factors. In the further step, the mechanism of major accidents can be generalized. The model is applied in the case of port engineering. To avoid major accidents, the corresponding measures would be taken according to different states of the port engineering. Through the application, the model is proved to be useful in the engineering practice.
doi:10.2991/itoec-15.2015.42 fatcat:lstcw47inbfdhiky22z7x6atri