FRACTAL ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS

Lуubov Shchelkunova
2020 LES TENDANCES ACTUELLES DE LA MONDIALISATION DE LA SCIENCE MONDIALE - VOLUME 1   unpublished
Introductions. The problem of fractal analysis of the dynamics of international tourism is considered, the solution of which is aimed at detecting the moments of deviations in the tendency of its development. Aim. The aim of this work is to determine the global and local fractal characteristics of time series that characterize the development of international tourism, in order to identify the characteristics of the dynamics of their evolution, self-similarity properties, trend resistance, the
more » ... d resistance, the presence of a "memory effect" and its level. This approach allows you to make the necessary changes to the strategy for the development of international tourism in the regions in order to build better forecasting models. Materials and methods. In the work, fractal analysis methods are used to analyze the self-similarity of time series and measure the level of complexity of the process they describe. The object of the study is the time series characterizing tourism activities and related economic indicators in the regions of the world. The statistics of the World Bank, the World Tourism Organization and the International Monetary Fund were examined. Results and discussion. For study, two macro-regions were taken (according to the UNWTO World Tourism Organization classifier): Europe and the Middle East. Throughout the period under review, Europe is a leader in international tourism in the world. However, its share in international tourist flows is constantly decreasing. The Middle East, characterized by political instability of the countries of the region, in 1980 had only 2% of the share of international arrivals in the world. At the beginning of the XXI century, the Middle East countries are one of the most dynamically developing tourist regions of the world. It is known that the appearance of fractal analysis is associated with the establishment of individual cases of erroneous ideas about the behavior of certain objects and processes. In most cases, by default they rely on the action of the central limit theorem, according to which the sum of a large number of independent identically distributed random variables approaches the normal distribution [2]. But in some cases the conditions of the theorem may be violated, which means that the normal law is not observed. For example, the effect of "heavy tails" and high peaks may appear. Despite the presence of a clear linear trend (Fig. 1) , histograms of the distribution of international arrivals by region and world do not show the normal
doi:10.36074/03.04.2020.v1.33 fatcat:gxxkjuv6jva27aotoz7g44irim