RESEARCH ON THE DIFFICULTY IN SEASONAL PREDICTION OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN PAKISTAN, FOCUSING ON THE ANOMALY OF GENERAL CIRCULATION
大気大循環の偏差に着目した,パキスタンにおける渇水と豪雨の季節予測を下げる要因に関する研究

Masashi MINAMIDE, Toshio KOIKE
2014 Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers Ser B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)  
Since Pakistan locates in the west edge of the Asian Summer Monsoon Region, the amount of precipitation is severely influenced by the variability of monsoon activity. To reduce the damage of these water hazards, this research aims to show one reason of the difference in predicting precipitation in Pakistan, which is still a very challenging problem due to the complicated mechanism of the monsoon system. As a first step, we examine the strong influence of the local Hadley Circulation over
more » ... ulation over Arabian Sea on the monsoonal precipitation activity in Pakistan. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-Phase composite analysis clarifies the temporal variation of the strength of the local Hadley Circulation is closely related to the eastward propagation of MJO. Finally, the analysis on the seasonal forecasting data of GCM MIROC confirmed that the MJO takes a great role in forcing the intra-seasonal variability of Local Hadley Circulation. As a result, it is indicated that the fail to reproduce the MJO can be one of the great causalities of the fail in correct seasonal prediction.
doi:10.2208/jscejhe.70.i_301 fatcat:k2bctine2jhllm5i7ayfwfpkce