In this paper, we address the problem of modeling and predicting the music genre preferences of users. We introduce a novel user modeling approach, BLL u , which takes into account the popularity of music genres as well as temporal drifts of user listening behavior. To model these two factors, BLL u adopts a psychological model that describes how humans access information in their memory. We evaluate our approach on a standard dataset of Last.fm listening histories, which contains fine-grained

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... usic genre information. To investigate performance for different types of users, we assign each user a mainstreaminess value that corresponds to the distance between the user's music genre preferences and the music genre preferences of the (Last.fm) mainstream. We adopt BLL u to model the listening habits and to predict the music genre preferences of three user groups: listeners of (i) niche, low-mainstream music, (ii) mainstream music, and (iii) medium-mainstream music that lies in-between. Our results show that BLL u provides the highest accuracy for predicting music genre preferences, compared to five baselines: (i) group-based modeling, (ii) user-based collaborative filtering, (iii) item-based collaborative filtering, (iv) frequency-based modeling, and (v) recency-based modeling. Besides, we achieve the most substantial accuracy improvements for the low-mainstream group. We believe that our findings provide valuable insights into the design of music recommender systems.