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The need for large-scale distribution data to estimate regional changes in species richness under future climate change

Nicolas Titeux, Dirk Maes, Toon Van Daele, Thierry Onkelinx, Risto K. Heikkinen, Helena Romo, Enrique García-Barros, Miguel L. Munguira, Wilfried Thuiller, Chris A. M. van Swaay, Oliver Schweiger, Josef Settele (+4 others)
2017 Diversity and Distributions: A journal of biological invasions and biodiversity  

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Aim: Species distribution models built with geographically restricted data often fail to capture the full range of conditions experienced by species across their entire distribution area. Using such models to predict distribution shifts under future environmental change may, therefore, produce biased projections. However, restricted-scale models have the potential to include a larger sample of taxa for which distribution data are available and to provide finer-resolution projections that are
more » ... ter applied to conservation planning than the forecasts of broad-scale models. We examine the circumstances under which the projected shifts in species richness patterns derived from restricted-scale and broad-scale models are most likely to be similar. Location: Europe. Methods: The distribution of butterflies in Finland, Belgium/Netherlands and Spain was modelled based on restricted-scale (local) and broad-scale (continental) distribution and climate data. Both types of models were projected under future climate change scenarios to assess potential changes in species richness. Results: In Finland, species richness was projected to increase strongly based on restricted-scale models and to decrease slightly with broad-scale models. In Belgium/ Netherlands, restricted-scale models projected a larger decrease in richness than Settele et al.
doi:10.1111/ddi.12634 fatcat:xqzxt2grtjajlgtyourhsmhbvy
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Nicolas Titeux, Dirk Maes, Toon Van Daele, Thierry Onkelinx, Risto K. Heikkinen, Helena Romo, Enrique García-Barros, Miguel L. Munguira, Wilfried Thuiller, Chris A. M. van Swaay, Oliver Schweiger, Josef Settele, Alexander Harpke, Martin Wiemers, Lluís Brotons, Miska Luoto. "The need for large-scale distribution data to estimate regional changes in species richness under future climate change." Diversity and Distributions: A journal of biological invasions and biodiversity 23.12 (2017) 1393-1407