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Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper
Weather and forecasting
Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a longstanding aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the importance of employing proper scores when selecting beween the various measures of forecast skill. It is demonstrated that only proper scores provide internally consistent evaluations of probability forecasts, justifying the focus on proper scoresdoi:10.1175/waf966.1 fatcat:5qan2l5inzgolmdffmddcxbkaq