A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting

Gang Xie, Yatong Qian, Shouyang Wang
2020 Annals of Tourism Research  
With the frequent occurrence of irregular events in recent years, the tourism industry in some areas, such as Hong Kong, has suffered great volatility. To enhance the predictive accuracy of tourism demand forecasting, a decomposition-ensemble approach is developed based on the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise, data characteristic analysis, and the Elman's neural network model. Using Hong Kong tourism demand as an empirical case, this study firstly investigates
more » ... ow data characteristic analysis is used in a decomposition-ensemble approach. The empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms other models in both point and interval forecasts for different prediction horizons, indicating the effectiveness of the proposed approach for forecasting tourism demand, especially for time series with complexity.
doi:10.1016/j.annals.2020.102891 pmid:32501311 pmcid:PMC7147863 fatcat:4egnusgq4vagrj23goh4id5pkm