A B S T R A C T This article examines the relationship between the private share of tertiary enrollments and overall access, measured by the gross tertiary enrollment rate, using a cross-national dataset from 122 countries spanning 1999− 2017. In contrast to the dominant assumption in international development that expanding the private sector will necessarily increase access, we find a weak association between the private share of tertiary enrollments and gross tertiary enrollment ratio

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... y. That said, this association is stronger when there is high demand for higher education, as proxied by secondary gross enrollment ratio and urbanization. We also find regional variation, with private higher education positively associated with access in Central and Eastern Europe and core English-speaking countries and negatively associated with access in sub-Saharan Africa, after accounting for demand factors. We argue that private higher education is only an effective policy solution for expanding access when there is high unmet demand for higher education and a conducive policy context.