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Evaluation of official tropical cyclone track forecast over north Indian Ocean issued by India Meteorological Department

2013 Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences  
India Meteorological Department (IMD) introduced the objective tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast valid for next 24 hr over the north Indian Ocean (NIO) in 2003. It further extended the validity period up to 72 hr in 2009. Here an attempt is made to evaluate the TC track forecast issued by IMD during 2003-2011 (9 years) by calculating the direct position error (DPE) and skill in track forecast. The accuracy of TC track forecast has been analysed with respect to basin of formation (Bay of
more » ... mation (Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea and NIO as whole), season of formation (pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons), intensity of TCs (cyclonic storm and severe cyclonic storm or higher intensities) and type of track of TCs (climatological/straight moving and recurving/looping type). The average DPE is about 140, 262 and 386 km and skill is about 27%, 39% and 50%, respectively for 24, 48 and 72 hr forecasts over the NIO as a whole during 2009-2011. Though the DPE is higher and skill is less as compared to those in northwest Pacific and north Atlantic Ocean, the rate of decrease (increase) in DPE (skill) is higher over the NIO in recent years. The DPE (skill) over the NIO has decreased (increased) at the rate of about 7.3 km (3%) per year during 2003-2011 for 24 hr forecasts. All the above is essential, as the most fundamental parameter in TC prediction is a storm's location or track. Improved short range (1-3 days) track forecasts lead to fewer unnecessary warnings and evacuations. It is due to the fact that the prediction
doi:10.1007/s12040-013-0291-1 fatcat:rfrlksm55nebnfilwvgmb5qtom