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To explore the influence of primary and caucus results during the 2008 nomination process we leverage a previously unused methodology-the analysis of prediction market contracts. The unique structure of prediction markets allows us to address two questions. First, we analyze whether primary and caucus results affect candidates' chances in the general election, as candidates who take extreme positions during the nomination contest may be unable to easily appeal to centrist voters in the generaldoi:10.2139/ssrn.1333785 fatcat:bqk63x7lrrf6rob5e7kb7na4iy