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Universal probability-free prediction [article]

Vladimir Vovk, Dusko Pavlovic
2017 arXiv   pre-print
We construct universal prediction systems in the spirit of Popper's falsifiability and Kolmogorov complexity and randomness.  ...  These prediction systems do not depend on any statistical assumptions (but under the IID assumption they dominate, to within the usual accuracy, conformal prediction).  ...  Universal conformal prediction under the IID assumption Up to this point our exposition has been completely probability-free, but in this section we will consider the special case where the data are generated  ... 
arXiv:1603.04283v2 fatcat:hg7uzpr6ozgn5izc5dccsnf3vu

Universal probability-free prediction

Vladimir Vovk, Dusko Pavlovic
2017 Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence  
We construct universal prediction systems in the spirit of Popper's falsifiability and Kolmogorov complexity and randomness.  ...  These prediction systems do not depend on any statistical assumptions (but under the IID assumption they dominate, to within the usual accuracy, conformal prediction).  ...  the title "Universal probability-free conformal prediction" [16] .  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10472-017-9547-9 fatcat:ofeeffjvxzhgfbwmlivegvunqu

Twofold universal prediction schemes for achieving the finite-state predictability of a noisy individual binary sequence

T. Weissman, N. Merhav, A. Somekh-Baruch
2001 IEEE Transactions on Information Theory  
Moreover, these universal predictors do not depend on the crossover probability characterizing the BSC.  ...  predictive complexity of the noise-free setting.  ...  , where the prediction is randomly drawn according to the probability .  ... 
doi:10.1109/18.930923 fatcat:b67rtnra6nakbowjxa2h2svxoa

Prediction of Prostate-Specific Antigen Recurrence in Men with Long-term Follow-up Postprostatectomy Using Quantitative Nuclear Morphometry

R. W. Veltri, M. C. Miller, S. Isharwal, C. Marlow, D. V. Makarov, A. W. Partin
2008 Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention  
Kaplan-Meier survival curves and predictive probability graphs were generated.  ...  We evaluated the use of a patientspecific quantitative nuclear grade (QNG) alone and in combination with routine pathologic features to predict biochemical [prostate-specific antigen (PSA)] recurrence-free  ...  Kaplan-Meier curve comparing the biochemical recurrence-free survival in patients with favorable pathology (predictive probability <0.35) with those having unfavorable pathology (predictive probability  ... 
doi:10.1158/1055-9965.epi-07-0175 pmid:18199716 fatcat:z64jiqkgyzge3csmbzubwoq64u

Topology of Evolving Networks: Local Events and Universality

Réka Albert, Albert-László Barabási
2000 Physical Review Letters  
Finally, we use the obtained predictions to fit the connectivity distribution of the network describing the professional links between movie actors.  ...  We propose a continuum theory that predicts these two regimes as well as the scaling function and the exponents, in good agreement with the numerical results.  ...  On the other hand, our results indicate the existence of a different criterium for universality based on the functional form of P (k): Our model predicts the existence of two regimes, the scale-free and  ... 
doi:10.1103/physrevlett.85.5234 pmid:11102229 fatcat:jmqphxedrbg3jgluchfwqqqfiq

Testing the Multiverse: Bayes, Fine-Tuning and Typicality [article]

Luke A. Barnes
2017 arXiv   pre-print
In particular, I will consider how cosmologists can test the multiverse using observations of this universe.  ...  Theory testing in the physical sciences has been revolutionized in recent decades by Bayesian approaches to probability theory.  ...  Our observations of the universe not only constrain L but its free parameters.  ... 
arXiv:1704.01680v1 fatcat:rby4edwz3rhhzkwuxkdaxqoc4i

Universal Fingerprinting Chip Server

Janet Casique-Almazán, Violeta Larios-Serrato, Gabriela Edith Olguín-Ruíz, Carlos Javier Sánchez-Vallejo, Rogelio Maldonado-Rodríguez, Alfonso Méndez-Tenorio
2012 Bioinformation  
The Virtual Hybridization approach predicts the most probable hybridization sites across a target nucleic acid of known sequence, including both perfect and mismatched pairings.  ...  The Universal Fingerprinting Chip Applications Server contains the software for visualizing predicted hybridization patterns, which yields a simulated hybridization fingerprint that can be compared with  ...  Alternatively users can select previously designed universal probe sets.  ... 
doi:10.6026/97320630008586 pmid:22829736 pmcid:PMC3398781 fatcat:2tju2untkzcohkv6mm33oamvsm

Pre- and Post-Operative Nomograms to Predict Recurrence-Free Probability in Korean Men with Clinically Localized Prostate Cancer

Minyong Kang, Chang Wook Jeong, Woo Suk Choi, Yong Hyun Park, Sung Yong Cho, Sangchul Lee, Seung Bae Lee, Ja Hyeon Ku, Sung Kyu Hong, Seok-Soo Byun, Hyeon Jeong, Cheol Kwak (+4 others)
2014 PLoS ONE  
The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to develop pre-and postoperative nomograms that predict BCR-free probability.  ...  Conclusions: In summary, we developed pre-and post-operative nomograms predicting BCR-free probability after RP in a large Korean cohort with clinically localized PCa.  ...  biochemical recurrence (BCR)-free probability at 1, 2, and 5 years after radical prostatectomy.  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0100053 pmid:24936784 pmcid:PMC4061043 fatcat:scf6vrgjpnerdeqhz2jmoig4pe

Head-to-Head Comparison of the Three Most Commonly Used Preoperative Models for Prediction of Biochemical Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy

Giovanni Lughezzani, Lars Budäus, Hendrik Isbarn, Maxine Sun, Paul Perrotte, Alexander Haese, Felix K. Chun, Thorsten Schlomm, Thomas Steuber, Hans Heinzer, Hartwig Huland, Francesco Montorsi (+2 others)
2010 European Urology  
BCR-free rates at 3 yr and 5 yr after RP were 80.2% and 72.6%, respectively.  ...  The concordance index for 3-yr BCR predictions was 70.4%, 74.3%, and 75.2% for the D'Amico, CAPRA, and Stephenson models, respectively, versus 67.4%, 72.9%, and 73.5% for 5-yr BCR predictions.  ...  Lower BCR-free rates (higher risk of BCR) could not be predicted.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.eururo.2009.12.003 pmid:20018437 fatcat:xkcamcgcn5ejfcpcvaypadj3pa

Bayesian analysis of the (generalized) Chaplygin gas and cosmological constant models using the 157 gold SNe Ia data

R Colistete, J C Fabris
2005 Classical and quantum gravity  
In this case, there are now four free parameters and the predictions for them are: H_0 = 65.01^+1.81_-1.71, Ω_k0 = - 2.73^+1.53_-0.97, Ω_m0 = 0.00^+1.22_-0.00, Ω_c0 = 1.34^+0.94_-0.70, A̅ = 1.000^+0.000  ...  The age of the Universe, the deceleration parameter and the moment the Universe begins to accelerate are also evaluated. The quartessence scenario, is favoured.  ...  The probability to have a flat Universe is 37.04%. For the CGM, such numbers increase slightly : for example, the probability to have a closed Universe is extremely near 100%: 3.59σ.  ... 
doi:10.1088/0264-9381/22/14/001 fatcat:daldyxbnzfcana2jwrnmiysspu

New parameter-free mobility model: Opportunity priority selection model

Erjian Liu, Xiaoyong Yan
2019 Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications  
Here, we propose a new parameter-free model named opportunity priority selection model as an alternative in human mobility prediction.  ...  Developing a universal model capable of accurately predicting the mobility fluxes between locations is a fundamental and challenging problem in regional economics and transportation science.  ...  In this paper, we propose a new parameter-free model as an alternative in human mobility prediction.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.physa.2019.04.259 fatcat:effqg7vcuzbbjik5sns6sm6c2e

Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) Preoperative Score Versus Postoperative Score (CAPRA-S): Ability to Predict Cancer Progression and Decision-Making Regarding Adjuvant Therapy after Radical Prostatectomy

Won Ik Seo, Pil Moon Kang, Dong Il Kang, Jang Ho Yoon, Wansuk Kim, Jae Il Chung
2014 Journal of Korean medical science  
Performance of CAPRA-S score in predicting progression free probabilities was assessed through Kaplan Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression test.  ...  Additionally, prediction probability was compared with preoperative CAPRA score by logistic regression analysis.  ...  Except for the 3-yr progression-free probability, the prediction ability of the CAPRA-S score was superior (Table 4 ).  ... 
doi:10.3346/jkms.2014.29.9.1212 pmid:25246738 pmcid:PMC4168173 fatcat:niqw35yovfacxb3sfa745zrmyu

The Fine-Tuning of the Universe for Life [article]

Luke A. Barnes
2021 arXiv   pre-print
This chapter reviews this Fine-Tuning of the Universe for Life.  ...  The data in question are not the precise measurements of cosmology or particle physics, but a more general feature of our universe: it supports the existence of life.  ...  The Fine-Tuning of the Universe for Life Part of exploring any physical model is calculating the effect of varying its free parameters.  ... 
arXiv:2110.07783v1 fatcat:tcvngyd2hncgtnerqe3o2pq5vi

Page 665 of The Bibliotheca Sacra Vol. 40, Issue 160 [page]

1883 The Bibliotheca Sacra  
Rothe replies that prophecy is, in the main, a prediction of probabilities, not of certainties.  ...  for the assumption will not bear examination that the predictions of the Scripture relate to merely probable occurrences.  ... 

No Free Lunch Theorem, Inductive Skepticism, and the Optimality of Meta-induction

Gerhard Schurz
2017 Philosophy of Science  
It asserts that relative to a uniform probability distribution over all possible worlds, all computable prediction algorithms  whether 'clever' inductive or 'stupid' guessing methods (etc.)  have the  ...  The no free lunch theorem (Wolpert 1996) is a radicalized version of Hume's induction skepticism.  ...  Here "free lunches" are possible in the sense that not all prediction methods have the same expected success, relative to a state-uniform probability distribution.  ... 
doi:10.1086/693929 fatcat:udecx5lyvvdzvfts2yhhuz3k2q
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