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What Is the Role of Agro-Met Information Services in Farmer Decision-Making? Uptake and Decision-Making Context among Farmers within Three Case Study Villages in Maharashtra, India

Ingrid Nesheim, Line Barkved, Neha Bharti
2017 Agriculture  
We understand salience as tailoring crop-specific, location-specific agro-met advisories in various stages of crop growth stage.  ...  Several factors play an important role in farmer's agricultural decision-making.  ...  Acknowledgments: This manuscript is based on research in the project; The governance of climate services: Improving knowledge networks for resilient and socially just societies, funded by The Research  ... 
doi:10.3390/agriculture7080070 fatcat:yoealam2fbh5tgh3zihr2hrha4

A User-Friendly Theoretical Mathematical Model for the Prediction of Food Safety in a Food Production Chain

Angeliki Birmpa Apostolos Vantarakis
2015 Journal of Food Processing & Technology  
The complexity of food systems and the large number of "critical points" in food production chain impose the necessity of the development of mathematical models for the prediction of food safety as well  ...  The proposed model provides the quality and product managers of a vegetable company with a total new approach which is clear, simple, user friendly, realtime, easily accessible, fast, reliable, and of  ... 
doi:10.4172/2157-7110.1000421 fatcat:uh35pcdu6bhsnk6lruudzzpe6u

How to Manage Output Uncertainty: Targeting the Actual End User Problem in Interactions with AI

Zelun Tony Zhang, Heinrich Hußmann
2021 International Conference on Intelligent User Interfaces  
To enable effective management of output uncertainty, we believe it is necessary to focus on truly human-centered AI designs that keep the human in an active role of control.  ...  Transparency and explainability should therefore not be the end goals, as such a focus tends to place the human into a passive supervisory role in what is in reality an algorithm-centered system design  ...  Acknowledgments This work was supported by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) under the LuFo VI-1 program, project KIEZ4-0.  ... 
dblp:conf/iui/ZhangH21 fatcat:ysxdpiqbx5cpbgv5wvg7j4h26a

Incorporating user values into climate services

Wendy S. Parker, Greg Lusk
2019 Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS)  
What numerical value should be assigned to this parameter in the model? In some cases, there is substantial uncertainty about which option will give the most accurate results.  ...  Yet often there is significant uncertainty about which information sources are most accurate, especially in the case of model projections (Collins 2017) .  ... 
doi:10.1175/bams-d-17-0325.1 fatcat:2hfcqfamd5advmldr2yzn3moua

Review of seasonal forecasting in South Africa: producer to end-user

PA Johnston, ERM Archer, CH Vogel, CN Bezuidenhout, WJ Tennant, R Kuschke
2004 Climate Research (CR)  
This paper describes the process of the development, dissemination and use of seasonal climate forecasts in South Africa.  ...  Reliable seasonal forecasting of climate, particularly for the rainy season for South Africa, has the potential to be of great benefit to users.  ...  The role of key institutions in the forecast system is assessed with a view to characterising the 'end-to-end' nature of the process.  ... 
doi:10.3354/cr028067 fatcat:o6md3fmpvzfv3hjpvzmbacx4i4

Automated farming prediction

Talha Siddique, Dipro Barua, Zannatul Ferdous, Amitabha Chakrabarty
2017 2017 Intelligent Systems Conference (IntelliSys)  
The total system is focused on the climate and geographical condition of different areas of Bangladesh. It predicts the best cost effective crop using a prediction based algorithm.  ...  Then best crop name will be shown in the screen. If the suggestive crop is chosen, the entire steps of cultivation will be shown to him.  ...  How much feasible our app is, in which sector is it more feasible and which sector it is not, what are the requirements of our app and how much importance do they bear, screenshots of our app and what  ... 
doi:10.1109/intellisys.2017.8324214 fatcat:26mr4b6gebhu5hfnrkuel4mbxe

A Vision for Numerical Weather Prediction in 2030 [article]

Tim Palmer
2022 arXiv   pre-print
In this essay, I outline a personal vision of how I think Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) should evolve in the years leading up to 2030 and hence what it should look like in 2030.  ...  Here I want to focus on how NWP can better help save lives from increasingly extreme weather in those parts of the world where society is most vulnerable.  ...  This work was supported by the European Research Council Advanced Grant ITHACA, 741112.  ... 
arXiv:2007.04830v2 fatcat:m4jbyaoqzbhprbxer3t62gxgvq

Toward User-Driven Algorithm Auditing: Investigating users' strategies for uncovering harmful algorithmic behavior

Alicia DeVos, Aditi Dhabalia, Hong Shen, Kenneth Holstein, Motahhare Eslami
2022 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems  
Based on our findings, we present a process model capturing the dynamics of and influences on users' search and sensemaking behaviors.  ...  We offer directions for the design of future methods and tools that can better support user-driven auditing.  ...  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) program on Fairness in AI in collaboration with Amazon under Award No.  ... 
doi:10.1145/3491102.3517441 fatcat:obypclcgqzfwjjnst5rwgs24z4

Second Feedback report from users on durum wheat pilot service development

Andrea Toreti
2021 Zenodo  
Since the limitations related to covid19 forced the delay of the workshop with end-users, the feedback of these products is collected internally among WP4 partners.  ...  This report contains the description of the current status of the MEDGOLD WP4 climate service tools (CLISAGRI, DELPHI, GRANODURO.NET) applied to seasonal forecast data.  ...  An R package to visualize and communicate uncertainty in seasonal climate prediction. Environmental modelling & software, 99, 101-110. 2018 [RD.4] Ceglar et al.  ... 
doi:10.5281/zenodo.4543367 fatcat:j2j7lc7aqnae7e5xmrg5a6rqsq

Preface:Climate Predictions for Better Agricultural Risk Management

Holger Meinke, M. V. K. Sivakumar, Raymond P. Motha, Rohan Nelson
2007 Australian Journal of Agricultural Research  
The resulting bioeconomic modelling system is capable of forecasting the direction of movement in Australian farm incomes at the beginning of the financial year.  ...  Through a novel application of M-quantile regression, they make a simple, econometric farm income model responsive to SCF by integrating it with crop and pasture models.  ... 
doi:10.1071/arv58n10_pr fatcat:cvzqkomk4zegfok3qqtdqufb2q

Methods for Exploring Uncertainty in Groundwater Management Predictions [chapter]

Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Randall J. Hunt, Alessandro Comunian, Rachel S. Blakers, Baihua Fu
2016 Integrated Groundwater Management  
This chapter provides an overview of uncertainty in models and in the definition of a problem to model, highlights approaches to communicating and using predictions of uncertain outcomes and summarises  ...  It is intended to raise awareness of how alternative models and hence uncertainty can be explored in order to facilitate the integration of these techniques with groundwater management.  ...  In these cases, it is considered good practice to present "the modeller's estimate of the representative uncertainty given what is known about the system, the type of prediction(s), and the modeller's  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-319-23576-9_28 fatcat:lqtzm45mergjdmqvzbxywwyefu

Bridging Modeling and Certification to Evaluate Low-ILUC-Risk Practices for Biobased Materials with a User-Friendly Tool

Enrico Balugani, Beike Sumfleth, Stefan Majer, Diego Marazza, Daniela Thrän
2022 Sustainability  
This was done by explicitly including the additionality practices in an ILUC model, simplifying the model to a spreadsheet tool that relates automatically the input provided by the user, which may be a  ...  ILUC modeling estimates have large uncertainties, making them difficult to include in a policy aiming at reducing environmental impacts.  ...  The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.  ... 
doi:10.3390/su14042030 fatcat:3qg7n6rvlrdwpcwb6aemvfkxly

Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges

James W. Hansen
2002 Agricultural Systems  
Third, benefit depends on prediction of the components of climate variability that are relevant to viable decisions.  ...  The first prerequisite is that forecast information must address a need that is both real and perceived.  ...  What role can research play in enabling farmers and other agricultural decision makers to realize the potential benefits from seasonal climate prediction?  ... 
doi:10.1016/s0308-521x(02)00043-4 fatcat:awx5kzhmyfhwlpuguehvpg5aiq

User responses to imperfect forecasts: Findings from an experiment with Kentucky wheat farmers

Yoko Kusunose, Lala Ma, David Van Sanford
2019 Weather, Climate, and Society  
We do this in the context of a very specific management choice-the timing and amount of nitrogen that Kentucky farmers apply to their wheat in early spring-in response to randomly generated 6-to-10-day  ...  We find that forecasts provide economically significant value to decision-makers only when they depart dramatically from what is normally expected.  ...  We are deeply appreciative of Matt Dixon and Rezaul Mahmood, who shared their time and expertise in helping us to understand the meteorological literature and the local precipitation data.  ... 
doi:10.1175/wcas-d-18-0135.1 fatcat:snc3uuusujglpapk4pb6fcsn2i

Atmospheric Predictability

Shigeo YODEN
2007 Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan  
system that is a basic tool to describe large-scale balanced flow approximately and the discovery of chaos that is the key concept of atmospheric predictability.  ...  The histories of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric predictability research are briefly reviewed in this article in celebration of the 125-year anniversary of the foundation of the Japan Meteorological  ...  This work was supported in part by the Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT) of Japan, and by the Kyoto University Active Geosphere  ... 
doi:10.2151/jmsj.85b.77 fatcat:t6j5ylp3cnddndgtnzdzdjqn54
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