A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2017; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
Filters
Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Difference in Beliefs, and Bond Risk Premia
2010
Social Science Research Network
Preserved Fulltext
Finally, we control for an array of alternative predictor variables and show that the information contained in the belief structure of the economy is different from either consensus views or fundamentals ...
First, consistent with a general equilibrium model, heterogeneity in beliefs affect the price of risk so that belief dispersion regarding the real economy, inflation, short and long term interest rates ...
He derives conditions under which recursive preferences admit equilibria in which both agents survive in the long run. ...
doi:10.2139/ssrn.1659388
fatcat:3k6anqlnybfebj6ii2xwvjdamu
Fragile Beliefs and the Price of Uncertainty
[chapter]
2014
World Scientific Series in Economic Theory
Preserved Fulltext
A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2018; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten ...
A representative consumer uses Bayes' law to learn about parameters of several models and to construct probabilities with which to perform ongoing model averaging. ...
Doubts promote fragile beliefs A representative consumer values consumption streams according to the multiplier preferences that Hansen and Sargent (2001) used to represent model uncertainty. 2 Fol-lowing ...
doi:10.1142/9789814578127_0009
fatcat:uyonmssu6nevfigl4eogdyuddy
Decision Making in a Context where Uncertainty is Represented by Belief Functions
[chapter]
2002
Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing
Preserved Fulltext
A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2005; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
A quantified model to represent uncertainty is incomplete if its use in a decision environment is not explained. ...
When uncertainty is represented by belief functions, the choice of the appropriate probability function must be explained and justified. ...
We have presented some of the procedures developed for the 'rational' decision making in the TBM context and in the ULP context. ...
doi:10.1007/978-3-7908-1798-0_2
fatcat:colg74c2irfofotdt2tjmrcxwu
Belief elicitation in the presence of naïve respondents: An experimental study
2011
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Preserved Fulltext
A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2017; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
Our findings hold substantial practical value to anyone interested in eliciting beliefs from representative populations, a goal of increasing importance, for example, when conducting large-scale surveys ...
We show that, theoretically and empirically, when there is a sufficient fraction of naïve participants, the clock mechanism elicits beliefs more accurately than the declarative mechanism. ...
This condition is weaker than the requirement that preferences satisfy expected utility. ...
doi:10.1007/s11166-011-9133-1
fatcat:4trwy2zdszf7rlvwrqfdq7frxi
Heterogeneous Beliefs, Regret, and Uncertainty: The Role of Speculation in Energy Price Dynamics
2013
Social Science Research Network
Preserved Fulltext
A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2017; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
To this aim, we propose a new theoretical and empirical framework based on a heterogeneous agents model in which fundamentalists and chartists co-exist and are subject to regret and uncertainty. ...
We ...nd signi...cant evidence that energy markets are composed by heterogeneous traders which behave di¤erently depending on the intensity of the price ‡uctuations and uncertainty context. ...
The relative performance of the two forecast alternatives is evaluated by using the conditional Giacomini-White Giacomini and White (2006) propose a test of Conditional Predictive Ability which allows ...
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2253203
fatcat:g5eakvkd2rem5fkba6ha3rfi3e
The distortion of beliefs in the face of uncertainty
2007
International Journal of Management and Decision Making
Preserved Fulltext
A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2017; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
Uncertainty is one such state, in which one encounters difficult problems and expects little success. ...
Judgements and beliefs often are distorted. They are affected by underlying values and reflect strong tendencies toward wishful thinking. ...
I am grateful to professor Robyn Dawes and Dr. Patric Andersson for their comments on the manuscript. ...
doi:10.1504/ijmdm.2007.012148
fatcat:dxa7rqoow5arlexlwljkcih7cy
Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics
2015
European Journal of Operational Research
Preserved Fulltext
A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2017; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
To this aim, we propose a new theoretical and empirical framework based on a heterogeneous agents model in which fundamentalists and chartists co-exist and are subject to regret and uncertainty. ...
We ...nd signi...cant evidence that energy markets are composed by heterogeneous traders which behave di¤erently depending on the intensity of the price ‡uctuations and uncertainty context. ...
The relative performance of the two forecast alternatives is evaluated by using the conditional Giacomini-White Giacomini and White (2006) propose a test of Conditional Predictive Ability which allows ...
doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2015.05.061
fatcat:dgoibbcjurgbtprjzms5ajxfbu
Dealing with belief uncertainty in domain models
2022
ACM Transactions on Software Engineering and Methodology
Preserved Fulltext
A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2022; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
In this paper, we are interested in representing and processing uncertain information in domain models, considering the stakeholders' beliefs (opinions). ...
We show how to associate beliefs to model elements, and how to propagate and operate with their associated uncertainty so that domain experts can individually reason about their models enriched with their ...
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to thank the reviewers of the paper for their insightful comments and very valuable suggestions, which have signiicantly helped us to improve it. ...
doi:10.1145/3542947
fatcat:oh6q5bpianeidoon7sgy3fmoem
Preference Modeling and Preference Elicitation: An Overview
2014
International Workshop on Decision Making and Recommender Systems
Preserved Fulltext
A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2022; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
Handling preferences [16] is important in a number of domains, including recommender systems, computational advertisement, personal cognitive assistants, systems for decision support (for example, in medicine ...
In order to get closer to the goal of realizing autonomous agents that can decide and act on behalf of humans, formal tools are needed in order to model preferences, represent preferences in a compact ...
Recommend the item optimal according to the current belief A number of alternative proposals have been made with respect to 1) how preference uncertainty is represented in a belief, 2) which criterion ...
dblp:conf/dmrs/Viappiani14
fatcat:al2jvh5zyzdqxk6uwdksvf6m3a
Preference Change
2015
Journal of Logic, Language and Information
Preserved Fulltext
A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2019; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
or measurable change in belief. ...
Most models of rational action assume that all possible states and actions are pre-defined and that preferences change only when beliefs do. ...
Acknowledgements: We thank the associate editor and the anonymous reviewers of this paper for helpful comments and suggestions. ...
doi:10.1007/s10849-015-9221-8
fatcat:xohbdqfrsve3vhhg46as3zoa54
State-Dependent Preferences
[chapter]
1987
The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
Preserved Fulltext
A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2017; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
Definition: A preference relation < on F is state dependent if < s 6 =< s 0 for some nonnull s and s 0 in S. ...
Given a preference relation < on F ; a state s; and f, f 0 , g, g 0 in F , define a preference relation on F conditional on s, < s , by f < s f 0 if g < g 0 whenever f (s) = g (s) , f 0 (s) = g 0 (s) and ...
Preferences among acts are a matter of personal judgement, presumably combining the decision maker's valuation of the consequences and his beliefs regarding the likely realization of alternative events ...
doi:10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1690-1
fatcat:tkcaom7l2vfudjevm6zji4rala
State-dependent Preferences
[chapter]
1990
Utility and Probability
Preserved Fulltext
A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2017; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
Definition: A preference relation < on F is state dependent if < s 6 =< s 0 for some nonnull s and s 0 in S. ...
Given a preference relation < on F ; a state s; and f, f 0 , g, g 0 in F , define a preference relation on F conditional on s, < s , by f < s f 0 if g < g 0 whenever f (s) = g (s) , f 0 (s) = g 0 (s) and ...
Preferences among acts are a matter of personal judgement, presumably combining the decision maker's valuation of the consequences and his beliefs regarding the likely realization of alternative events ...
doi:10.1007/978-1-349-20568-4_32
fatcat:4o7wsdo3yzf6vfom6nibmd6xgi
State-Dependent Preferences
[chapter]
2008
The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
Preserved Fulltext
A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2017; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
Definition: A preference relation < on F is state dependent if < s 6 =< s 0 for some nonnull s and s 0 in S. ...
Given a preference relation < on F ; a state s; and f, f 0 , g, g 0 in F , define a preference relation on F conditional on s, < s , by f < s f 0 if g < g 0 whenever f (s) = g (s) , f 0 (s) = g 0 (s) and ...
Preferences among acts are a matter of personal judgement, presumably combining the decision maker's valuation of the consequences and his beliefs regarding the likely realization of alternative events ...
doi:10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1690-2
fatcat:xnavr3wgzvhlhmry7cb7aoysjm
Liquidity Preference and Information
2010
Social Science Research Network
Preserved Fulltext
A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2017; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
This note explores the link between anticipated information and a preference for liquidity in investment choices. ...
Given a subjective ordering of investment portfolios by their liquidity, we identify a sufficient condition under which the prospect of finer resolution of uncertainty creates a preference for more liquid ...
It is often suggested that the great uncertainty that accompanies economic crises reinforces a preference for liquidity. ...
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2009918
fatcat:ev2rxqq5zjcvtmlj6tdby6s7pm
Preference Based Subjective Beliefs
2018
Games
Preserved Fulltext
A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2019; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf.
This approach— by analogy with Psychological Game Theory—allows for interdependence between preferences and beliefs but reverses the order of causality. ...
We use existing evidence from a multi-stage experiment in which we first elicit distributional preferences in a Random Dictator Game, then estimate beliefs in a related 2×2 effort game conditional on these ...
Acknowledgments: This paper builds upon a long-term research project on social preferences and strategic uncertainty carried out in Alicante within the last 10 years, namely, the "CABRA project". ...
doi:10.3390/g9030050
fatcat:2p3onwjtabehzdlxhu5ltk6ehe
« Previous
Showing results 1 — 15 out of 91,388 results