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Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Difference in Beliefs, and Bond Risk Premia

Andrea Buraschi, Paul Whelan
2010 Social Science Research Network  
Finally, we control for an array of alternative predictor variables and show that the information contained in the belief structure of the economy is different from either consensus views or fundamentals  ...  First, consistent with a general equilibrium model, heterogeneity in beliefs affect the price of risk so that belief dispersion regarding the real economy, inflation, short and long term interest rates  ...  He derives conditions under which recursive preferences admit equilibria in which both agents survive in the long run.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.1659388 fatcat:3k6anqlnybfebj6ii2xwvjdamu

Fragile Beliefs and the Price of Uncertainty [chapter]

2014 World Scientific Series in Economic Theory  
Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten  ...  A representative consumer uses Bayes' law to learn about parameters of several models and to construct probabilities with which to perform ongoing model averaging.  ...  Doubts promote fragile beliefs A representative consumer values consumption streams according to the multiplier preferences that Hansen and Sargent (2001) used to represent model uncertainty. 2 Fol-lowing  ... 
doi:10.1142/9789814578127_0009 fatcat:uyonmssu6nevfigl4eogdyuddy

Decision Making in a Context where Uncertainty is Represented by Belief Functions [chapter]

Philippe Smets
2002 Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing  
A quantified model to represent uncertainty is incomplete if its use in a decision environment is not explained.  ...  When uncertainty is represented by belief functions, the choice of the appropriate probability function must be explained and justified.  ...  We have presented some of the procedures developed for the 'rational' decision making in the TBM context and in the ULP context.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-7908-1798-0_2 fatcat:colg74c2irfofotdt2tjmrcxwu

Belief elicitation in the presence of naïve respondents: An experimental study

Li Hao, Daniel Houser
2011 Journal of Risk and Uncertainty  
Our findings hold substantial practical value to anyone interested in eliciting beliefs from representative populations, a goal of increasing importance, for example, when conducting large-scale surveys  ...  We show that, theoretically and empirically, when there is a sufficient fraction of naïve participants, the clock mechanism elicits beliefs more accurately than the declarative mechanism.  ...  This condition is weaker than the requirement that preferences satisfy expected utility.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s11166-011-9133-1 fatcat:4trwy2zdszf7rlvwrqfdq7frxi

Heterogeneous Beliefs, Regret, and Uncertainty: The Role of Speculation in Energy Price Dynamics

Marc Joëts
2013 Social Science Research Network  
To this aim, we propose a new theoretical and empirical framework based on a heterogeneous agents model in which fundamentalists and chartists co-exist and are subject to regret and uncertainty.  ...  We ...nd signi...cant evidence that energy markets are composed by heterogeneous traders which behave di¤erently depending on the intensity of the price ‡uctuations and uncertainty context.  ...  The relative performance of the two forecast alternatives is evaluated by using the conditional Giacomini-White Giacomini and White (2006) propose a test of Conditional Predictive Ability which allows  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2253203 fatcat:g5eakvkd2rem5fkba6ha3rfi3e

The distortion of beliefs in the face of uncertainty

Lennart Sjoberg
2007 International Journal of Management and Decision Making  
Uncertainty is one such state, in which one encounters difficult problems and expects little success.  ...  Judgements and beliefs often are distorted. They are affected by underlying values and reflect strong tendencies toward wishful thinking.  ...  I am grateful to professor Robyn Dawes and Dr. Patric Andersson for their comments on the manuscript.  ... 
doi:10.1504/ijmdm.2007.012148 fatcat:dxa7rqoow5arlexlwljkcih7cy

Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics

Marc Joëts
2015 European Journal of Operational Research  
To this aim, we propose a new theoretical and empirical framework based on a heterogeneous agents model in which fundamentalists and chartists co-exist and are subject to regret and uncertainty.  ...  We ...nd signi...cant evidence that energy markets are composed by heterogeneous traders which behave di¤erently depending on the intensity of the price ‡uctuations and uncertainty context.  ...  The relative performance of the two forecast alternatives is evaluated by using the conditional Giacomini-White Giacomini and White (2006) propose a test of Conditional Predictive Ability which allows  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2015.05.061 fatcat:dgoibbcjurgbtprjzms5ajxfbu

Dealing with belief uncertainty in domain models

Lola Burgueño, Paula Muñoz, Robert Clarisó, Jordi Cabot, Sébastien Gérard, Antonio Vallecillo
2022 ACM Transactions on Software Engineering and Methodology  
In this paper, we are interested in representing and processing uncertain information in domain models, considering the stakeholders' beliefs (opinions).  ...  We show how to associate beliefs to model elements, and how to propagate and operate with their associated uncertainty so that domain experts can individually reason about their models enriched with their  ...  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to thank the reviewers of the paper for their insightful comments and very valuable suggestions, which have signiicantly helped us to improve it.  ... 
doi:10.1145/3542947 fatcat:oh6q5bpianeidoon7sgy3fmoem

Preference Modeling and Preference Elicitation: An Overview

Paolo Viappiani
2014 International Workshop on Decision Making and Recommender Systems  
Handling preferences [16] is important in a number of domains, including recommender systems, computational advertisement, personal cognitive assistants, systems for decision support (for example, in medicine  ...  In order to get closer to the goal of realizing autonomous agents that can decide and act on behalf of humans, formal tools are needed in order to model preferences, represent preferences in a compact  ...  Recommend the item optimal according to the current belief A number of alternative proposals have been made with respect to 1) how preference uncertainty is represented in a belief, 2) which criterion  ... 
dblp:conf/dmrs/Viappiani14 fatcat:al2jvh5zyzdqxk6uwdksvf6m3a

Preference Change

Anaïs Cadilhac, Nicholas Asher, Alex Lascarides, Farah Benamara
2015 Journal of Logic, Language and Information  
or measurable change in belief.  ...  Most models of rational action assume that all possible states and actions are pre-defined and that preferences change only when beliefs do.  ...  Acknowledgements: We thank the associate editor and the anonymous reviewers of this paper for helpful comments and suggestions.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10849-015-9221-8 fatcat:xohbdqfrsve3vhhg46as3zoa54

State-Dependent Preferences [chapter]

Edi Karni
1987 The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics  
Definition: A preference relation < on F is state dependent if < s 6 =< s 0 for some nonnull s and s 0 in S.  ...  Given a preference relation < on F ; a state s; and f, f 0 , g, g 0 in F , define a preference relation on F conditional on s, < s , by f < s f 0 if g < g 0 whenever f (s) = g (s) , f 0 (s) = g 0 (s) and  ...  Preferences among acts are a matter of personal judgement, presumably combining the decision maker's valuation of the consequences and his beliefs regarding the likely realization of alternative events  ... 
doi:10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1690-1 fatcat:tkcaom7l2vfudjevm6zji4rala

State-dependent Preferences [chapter]

Edi Karni
1990 Utility and Probability  
Definition: A preference relation < on F is state dependent if < s 6 =< s 0 for some nonnull s and s 0 in S.  ...  Given a preference relation < on F ; a state s; and f, f 0 , g, g 0 in F , define a preference relation on F conditional on s, < s , by f < s f 0 if g < g 0 whenever f (s) = g (s) , f 0 (s) = g 0 (s) and  ...  Preferences among acts are a matter of personal judgement, presumably combining the decision maker's valuation of the consequences and his beliefs regarding the likely realization of alternative events  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-1-349-20568-4_32 fatcat:4o7wsdo3yzf6vfom6nibmd6xgi

State-Dependent Preferences [chapter]

Edi Karni
2008 The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics  
Definition: A preference relation < on F is state dependent if < s 6 =< s 0 for some nonnull s and s 0 in S.  ...  Given a preference relation < on F ; a state s; and f, f 0 , g, g 0 in F , define a preference relation on F conditional on s, < s , by f < s f 0 if g < g 0 whenever f (s) = g (s) , f 0 (s) = g 0 (s) and  ...  Preferences among acts are a matter of personal judgement, presumably combining the decision maker's valuation of the consequences and his beliefs regarding the likely realization of alternative events  ... 
doi:10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1690-2 fatcat:xnavr3wgzvhlhmry7cb7aoysjm

Liquidity Preference and Information

Sandeep Kapur
2010 Social Science Research Network  
This note explores the link between anticipated information and a preference for liquidity in investment choices.  ...  Given a subjective ordering of investment portfolios by their liquidity, we identify a sufficient condition under which the prospect of finer resolution of uncertainty creates a preference for more liquid  ...  It is often suggested that the great uncertainty that accompanies economic crises reinforces a preference for liquidity.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2009918 fatcat:ev2rxqq5zjcvtmlj6tdby6s7pm

Preference Based Subjective Beliefs

Matilde Giaccherini, Giovanni Ponti
2018 Games  
This approach— by analogy with Psychological Game Theory—allows for interdependence between preferences and beliefs but reverses the order of causality.  ...  We use existing evidence from a multi-stage experiment in which we first elicit distributional preferences in a Random Dictator Game, then estimate beliefs in a related 2×2 effort game conditional on these  ...  Acknowledgments: This paper builds upon a long-term research project on social preferences and strategic uncertainty carried out in Alicante within the last 10 years, namely, the "CABRA project".  ... 
doi:10.3390/g9030050 fatcat:2p3onwjtabehzdlxhu5ltk6ehe
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