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Towards Active Diagnosis of Hybrid Systems leveraging Multimodel Identification and a Markov Decision Process

Florian de Mortain, Audine Subias, Louise Travé-Massuyès, Vincent de Flaugergues
2015 IFAC-PapersOnLine  
An application to a diesel engine airpath model is presented so as to illustrate the diagnosis and planning methods in practice.  ...  An application to a diesel engine airpath model is presented so as to illustrate the diagnosis and planning methods in practice.  ...  In order to simplify the uncertainty definition, the following approximation is made.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ifacol.2015.09.522 fatcat:t3rszn3ts5fk5m5tp6v7b363ye

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Inferred from the Forced Climate Response in Coupled General Circulation Models

Jeff R. Knight
2009 Journal of Climate  
In general, the means of individual model ensembles appear to be inconsistent with observed temperatures, although small ensemble sizes result in uncertainty in this conclusion.  ...  In the most recent period, the results suggest that the North Atlantic is warming faster than expected, and that the AMO entered a positive phase in the 1990s.  ...  The modeling groups the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) are acknowledged for their roles in making available the  ... 
doi:10.1175/2008jcli2628.1 fatcat:t645mjb44vge3ax47u6i54vzgm

A Multimodel Decision Fusion Method Based on DCNN-IDST for Fault Diagnosis of Rolling Bearing

Weixiao Xu, Luyang Jing, Jiwen Tan, Lianchen Dou, Zhixiong Li
2020 Shock and Vibration  
The result demonstrates that the proposed method can detect the fault of the rolling bearing effectively and achieve the highest diagnosis accuracy among all the tested methods in the experiment.  ...  Each pattern recognition method has its advantages and disadvantages to diagnose the state of rotating machinery. There are many fault types of rolling bearings with apparent uncertainty.  ...  evidence which appeared in malfunction diagnosis for largescale equipment [9] .  ... 
doi:10.1155/2020/8856818 fatcat:5ie2qvccyvbdziq7rwbcg6cbhi

Multimodel Ensembling in Seasonal Climate Forecasting at IRI

Anthony G. Barnston, Simon J. Mason, Lisa Goddard, David G. DeWitt, Stephen E. Zebiak
2003 Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS)  
The authors are grateful for the early comments of Chester Ropelewski, as well as the insightful comments and recommendations of the anonymous reviews.  ...  The above discussion points up the major role that multidecadal trends can play in climate diagnosis and prediction.  ...  An adjustment for this uncertainty was subjectively incorporated in the Net Assessment forecasts, and in principle could be objectively incorporated into the multimodel combination.  ... 
doi:10.1175/bams-84-12-1783 fatcat:uatzxngtdfdmpl32hh4qxyvkbi

The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction

Ben P. Kirtman, Dughong Min, Johnna M. Infanti, James L. Kinter, Daniel A. Paolino, Qin Zhang, Huug van den Dool, Suranjana Saha, Malaquias Pena Mendez, Emily Becker, Peitao Peng, Patrick Tripp (+17 others)
2014 Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS)  
One change in strategy is the inclusion of quantitative information regarding uncertainty (i.e., probabilistic prediction) in forecasts and probabilistic measures of forecast quality in the verifications  ...  The second change in prediction strategy follows from the first, because, given our current modeling capabilities, a multimodel strategy is a practical and relatively simple approach for quantifying forecast  ...  The phase-1 NMME project was supported by the NOAA MAPP program, and the phase-2 NMME project is support by NOAA MAPP, NSF, NASA, and the DOE.  ... 
doi:10.1175/bams-d-12-00050.1 fatcat:idh5jlbesjgirot2ghqtzfhlde

Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions

Wendy S. Parker
2013 Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change  
These ensemble studies are of two main types-perturbed-physics and multimodel-which investigate different sources of uncertainty about future climate change.  ...  Increasingly, methods are being applied which assign probabilities to future changes in climate on the basis of the set of projections (the ensemble) produced in a perturbed-physics or multimodel study  ...  To this end, in 1989 the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) was established at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the United States.  ... 
doi:10.1002/wcc.220 fatcat:uh3h64neyndyjolyguffcokkxu

Comment on "Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures"

S. Kravtsov, M. G. Wyatt, J. A. Curry, A. A. Tsonis
2015 Science  
(Reports, 27 February 2015, p. 988) argue that appropriately rescaled multimodel ensemble-mean time series provide an unbiased estimate of the forced climate response in individual model simulations.  ...  However, their procedure for demonstrating the validity of this assertion is flawed, and the residual intrinsic variability so defined is in fact dominated by the actual forced response of individual models  ...  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank Steinman et al. for making their data and analysis code publicly available. This research was supported by NSF grants OCE-1243158 (S.K.) and AGS-1408897 (S.K. and A.A.T.).  ... 
doi:10.1126/science.aab3570 pmid:26659048 fatcat:u2vund2t25aodknewbpxaitxbi

A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions

Stan Yip, Christopher A. T. Ferro, David B. Stephenson, Ed Hawkins
2011 Journal of Climate  
A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multimodel climate ensembles is presented.  ...  published by other authors: scenario uncertainty dominates beyond 2050 and internal variability remains approximately constant over the twenty-first century.  ...  We also thank the modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, and the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling for making the CMIP3 multimodel dataset freely available  ... 
doi:10.1175/2011jcli4085.1 fatcat:ozbm53p3nveedhwb3uzvdembd4

Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming

Alexis Berg, Justin Sheffield, P. C. D. Milly
2017 Geophysical Research Letters  
We interpret this behavior in the context of seasonal changes in the surface water budget.  ...  ) changes in total soil water availability.  ...  We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in  ... 
doi:10.1002/2016gl071921 fatcat:b3bhsqbncbelxcamxvufwgu5tq

Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations

Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Francis W. Zwiers, Xuebin Zhang, Gabriele C. Hegerl
2007 Journal of Climate  
Simulated present-day precipitation extremes are plausible in the extratropics, but uncertainties in extreme precipitation in the Tropics are very large, both in the models and the available observationally  ...  Temperature and precipitation extremes and their potential future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of global coupled climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC  ...  We acknowledge the international modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data,  ... 
doi:10.1175/jcli4066.1 fatcat:3uzgbvzeanecvebyqr2ql6bphu

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and Historical Simulations

Wei Cheng, John C. H. Chiang, Dongxiao Zhang
2013 Journal of Climate  
Potential drivers for the twentieth-century multimodel AMOC variability, including external climate forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the implication of these results on the North Atlantic  ...  This multidecadal variability is significantly correlated with similar variations in the net surface shortwave radiative flux in the North Atlantic and with surface freshwater flux variations in the subpolar  ...  Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for  ... 
doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00496.1 fatcat:ovk46bwo35cmngy76vudrnd3rm

The value of initial condition large ensembles to robust adaptation decision‐making

Justin S. Mankin, Flavio Lehner, Sloan Coats, Karen A. McKinnon
2020 Earth's Future  
attribution and quantification of uncertainty from initial condition large ensembles, particularly when analyzed in conjunction with multimodel ensembles.  ...  Internal climate variability, for example, is an inherent uncertainty in the climate system that is undersampled by the multimodel ensembles used in most climate impacts research.  ...  Acknowledgments We thank two anonymous reviewers, Noah Diffenbaugh, and  ... 
doi:10.1029/2020ef001610 fatcat:23ijbxvzkvcblpmj2vnqr65siy

A Sliding Mode-Multimodel Control with Sliding Mode Observer for a Sensorless Pumping System [article]

Ahmed Rhif, Zohra Kardous, Naceur Ben Hadj Braiek
2013 arXiv   pre-print
The observer is designed to estimate the speed and the mechanical position of the DC motor operating in the process.  ...  This work deals with the design of a sliding mode observer with a multi-surfaces sliding mode multimodel control (SM-MMC) for a mechanical sensorless pumping system.  ...  Introduction The luck of a sensor in control systems represents a major problem in the industry affecting the process automation (control, supervision, diagnosis etc ...).  ... 
arXiv:1301.2714v4 fatcat:5cqyaryuvvbmnfm3qrhoc2jhzi

Multimodel inference for biomarker development: an application to schizophrenia

Jason D. Cooper, Sung Yeon Sarah Han, Jakub Tomasik, Sureyya Ozcan, Nitin Rustogi, Nico J. M. van Beveren, F. Markus Leweke, Sabine Bahn
2019 Translational Psychiatry  
In the present study, to improve the predictive performance of a model and its reproducibility when applied to an independent data set, we investigated the use of multimodel inference to predict the probability  ...  The evidence of effect modification suggests that future schizophrenia studies should be conducted in males and females separately.  ...  We would like to thank the Department of Psychiatry, University of Cologne (Germany) and the Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam (Netherlands) for provision of biological samples, in addition to support  ... 
doi:10.1038/s41398-019-0419-4 pmid:30745560 pmcid:PMC6370882 fatcat:3knklbuqlncsrikl6wrcvczw4y

Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation Trends and Long-Term Persistence in CMIP5 Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations

Sanjiv Kumar, Venkatesh Merwade, James L. Kinter, Dev Niyogi
2013 Journal of Climate  
There are large uncertainties in the simulation of regional-/local-scale temperature and precipitation trends.  ...  Globally, precipitation trends are distributed (spatially) at about zero in both the models and in the observations.  ...  Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and leads the development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization  ... 
doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00259.1 fatcat:i7wlsle6sjhkvl6c3sntgshixy
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