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UNITE: Uncertainty-based Health Risk Prediction Leveraging Multi-sourced Data [article]

Chacha Chen, Junjie Liang, Fenglong Ma, Lucas M. Glass, Jimeng Sun, Cao Xiao
2021 arXiv   pre-print
To fill the gap, we propose UNcertaInTy-based hEalth risk prediction (UNITE) model.  ...  Building upon an adaptive multimodal deep kernel and a stochastic variational inference module, UNITE provides accurate disease risk prediction and uncertainty estimation leveraging multi-sourced health  ...  accurate disease risk prediction and uncertainty estimation leveraging multi-sourced health data including public health data and patient EHR.  ... 
arXiv:2010.11389v2 fatcat:ftmbrzotvzgnldjb3afsieznfq

A multi-method approach to modeling COVID-19 disease dynamics in the United States

Amir Mokhtari, Cameron Mineo, Jeffrey Kriseman, Pedro Kremer, Lauren Neal, John Larson
2021 Scientific Reports  
We further demonstrated how model outcomes could be used to evaluate perceived levels of COVID-19 risk across different localities using a multi-criteria decision analysis framework.  ...  Additionally, the prediction error in the state-level projections was generally due to an underestimation of cases and an overestimation of deaths.  ...  Summary data used in the model, including data sources is listed in Table 3 . (11) d(X, Y ) = T i=1 α T−i |X i − Y i | T i=1 α T−i × X i Results State-level predictions.  ... 
doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92000-w pmid:34127757 fatcat:fwgc5nxdwrhgxk5wffcpfmlfkm

United States: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

International Monetary Fund
2015 IMF Staff Country Reports  
CPI based Source: IMF staff estimates 6.  ...  The rise in U.S. dollar debt issued by highly leveraged corporates in emerging economies is a notable source of risk (see the 2015 Spillover Report). 8. Risks to financial stability.  ...  The United States has subscribed to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) and its metadata are posted on the Dissemination Standard Bulletin Board (DSBB). United States.  ... 
doi:10.5089/9781513539423.002 fatcat:imbbfyzuxranlcwkerdmnp777a

United States

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
2020 IMF Staff Country Reports  
To preserve lives and support public health, it was necessary to put in place a broad-based shutdown of the U.S. economy in March.  ...  Increasing asset purchases could encourage greater risk-taking and excessive leverage, amplifying financial stability risks.  ...  Directors noted that the recovery will likely be gradual and subject to significant risks and uncertainty.  ... 
doi:10.5089/9781513552835.002 fatcat:dqquwhsk4ndvpgtryukcvywyue

Science Policy to Advance a Climate Change and Health Research Agenda in the United States

Jaime Madrigano, Regina A. Shih, Maxwell Izenberg, Jordan R. Fischbach, Benjamin L. Preston
2021 International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health  
Closing these gaps is crucial to developing effective interventions to minimize the health risks from climate change.  ...  In this commentary, we discuss policy trends that have influenced the advancement of climate change and health research in the United States context.  ...  Melinda was an intellectual force and leader in global public health.  ... 
doi:10.3390/ijerph18157868 pmid:34360159 pmcid:PMC8345657 fatcat:7tzfftvlrfantjp4cexgduskyu

United Arab Emirates

2019 IMF Staff Country Reports  
GREs' annual borrowing/investment plans by finance authorities; setting up predictable dividend payout rules; establishing clear criteria (based on credit risk assessments) for issuance of guarantees;  ...  Not for Redistribution Financial Developments Sources: Country authorites; Bloomberg; Haver; REIDIN; and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Based on Emerging Portfolio Fund Research, Inc. data. 2/ FCI shows  ...  Large margins discourage banks from lending to riskier borrowers, such as SMEs, as banks are able to earn relatively high income just by lending to large, low-risk firms. 1  ... 
doi:10.5089/9781484397251.002 fatcat:grf5vgcinze7dmhwvar7tqqarm

United States: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report

International Monetary Fund
2017 IMF Staff Country Reports  
The current risk-based capital framework should not be replaced with a simple leverage ratio.  ...  Corporate Leverage Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Moody's KMV, GFSR, BAML, Haver.  ...  Administrative measures have been taken to lessen regulatory uncertainties and to transfer risks from the agencies to private investors through market transactions but more could be done in this direction  ... 
doi:10.5089/9781484312681.002 fatcat:f7qfovhgmffcdiv4qbnhmcm74u

United Arab Emirates: 2009 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice; and Statement by the Executive Director for United Arab Emirates

International Monetary Fund
2010 IMF Staff Country Reports  
Documentation in the public domain covers only syndicated loans and bonds as captured by various data providers, and analysts' estimates are based on these sources.  ...  Downside risks could materialize if the Dubai debt restructuring were to generate additional uncertainty.  ...  Shakour Shaalan, Executive Director for the United Arab Emirates February 3, 2010 Overview 1.  ... 
doi:10.5089/9781451801248.002 fatcat:wtaxjbjwlfbrlnykzm5n2wg4xq

Consensus and uncertainty in the geographic range of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the contiguous United States: Multi-model assessment and synthesis

Andrew J. Monaghan, Rebecca J. Eisen, Lars Eisen, Janet McAllister, Harry M. Savage, John-Paul Mutebi, Michael A. Johansson, Virginia E. Pitzer
2019 PLoS Computational Biology  
To assess accuracy and uncertainty we compared individual and ensemble model predictions of species presence or absence to both training and testing data.  ...  United States.  ...  The uncertainty thus highlights areas where either models are failing to capture risk or data are lacking.  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007369 pmid:31600194 pmcid:PMC6786520 fatcat:7jp7dcyfvnalfajxv6jwo4crwy

United States: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

International Monetary Fund
2016 IMF Staff Country Reports  
A risk-based approach.  ...  Leverage in the system on average does not appear high and risks appear manageable.  ...  Potential valuation losses including from losses on FDI assets in overseas energy projects are a source of uncertainty. Assessment.  ... 
doi:10.5089/9781498358958.002 fatcat:7bm2qx7mjrc5vg7hyrsnb7xt4a

United Republic of Tanzania: Selected Issues

International Monetary Fund
2016 IMF Staff Country Reports  
On tax administration, cleaning up the taxpayer registration and accounting, upgrading the IT system, and strengthening compliance risk management are suggested.  ...  On tax policy, broadening the tax base for VAT and corporate income tax, adjusting specific excise rates regularly, and developing property taxation are proposed.  ...  Data are provided by the World Health Organization (WHO).  ... 
doi:10.5089/9781498390941.002 fatcat:fwgmolgfjjhmvfgpinagipg3aa

United Kingdom

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
2020 IMF Staff Country Reports  
Risks are overall to the downside, centering on the degree of balance sheet damage sustained by households and small and medium enterprises.  ...  United Kingdom: Public DSA-Stress Tests Figure 5 . 5 United Kingdom: Public DSA Risk Assessment United Kingdom Source: IMF staff.  ...  While most aspects of the spending review set out single-year plans for 2021-22, multi-year settlements for health and schools provide additional certainty.  ... 
doi:10.5089/9781513564777.002 fatcat:5chsqlkoavf6jk4ohurmsp5jk4

Evaluation of predicted Medfly (Ceratitis capitata) quarantine length in the United States utilizing degree-day and agent-based models

Travis Collier, Nicholas Manoukis
2018 F1000Research  
Here, predicted quarantine lengths for 11 sites in the continental United States are evaluated using both approaches.  ...  Integrated Surface Database (ISD) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) formerly known as National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Last visited 2017-07-05. Reference Source 31.  ...  Mullaly (USDA-APHIS) for data on historical outbreaks. This work was supported by the US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service.  ... 
doi:10.12688/f1000research.12817.2 fatcat:sy4zxezhubhrljktamau5wq2fu

Methodological approaches for the prediction of opioid use-related epidemics in the United States: a narrative review and cross-disciplinary call to action

Charles Marks, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar, Rocío Carrasco-Hernandez, Derek Johnson, Dan Ciccarone, Steffanie A Strathdee, Davey Smith, Annick Bórquez
2021 Translational Research: The Journal of Laboratory and Clinical Medicine  
In total, 46 studies were included, and the following information extracted: discipline, objective, health outcome, drug/substance type, geographic region/unit of analysis, and data sources.  ...  The opioid crisis in the United States (US) has been defined by waves of drug- and locality-specific Opioid use-Related Epidemics (OREs) of overdose and bloodborne infections, among a range of health harms  ...  I (Continued) Paper Methodology Objective Substances Health Outcomes Region Unit of Analysis Specific Methods Employed Data Sources Sarker et al. 36 Machine learning (ML) with  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.trsl.2021.03.018 pmid:33798764 fatcat:tlyjg6l5rfgdjgs35hn7o7fjeq

United Arab Emirates: 2013 Article IV Consultation

International Monetary Fund
2013 IMF Staff Country Reports  
Predicted REER REER Source: IMF staff estimates.  ...  United Arab Emirates: Monetary and Financial Developments Sources: Haver; Markit; Bloomberg; and country authorities.  ...  Non-hydrocarbon growth is expected to remain strong at above 4 percent in the medium term, though subject to substantial external risks.  ... 
doi:10.5089/9781484389157.002 fatcat:jniym6f6vfd6rhsucfxhew6k6e
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