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Effects of Uncertainty and Cognitive Load on User Trust in Predictive Decision Making [chapter]

Jianlong Zhou, Syed Z. Arshad, Simon Luo, Fang Chen
2017 Lecture Notes in Computer Science  
This paper investigates effects of uncertainty and cognitive load on user trust in predictive decision making in order to design effective user interfaces for such ML-based intelligent systems.  ...  Rapid increase of data in different fields has been resulting in wide applications of Machine Learning (ML) based intelligent systems in predictive decision making scenarios.  ...  This work was supported in part by the Asian Office of Aerospace Research & Development (AOARD) under grant No. FA2386-14-1-0022 AOARD 134131.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-319-68059-0_2 fatcat:mafiicg4g5hlbhoxurfkv3vdoi

Linking knowledge systems for rural livelihoods adaptation under uncertainty: Drying and warming in Andean ecosystems

Corianne Valdivia, J L Gilles, A Seth, J Thiebault, E Jiménez, M García, E Yucra
2009 IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environment  
Projections show increases in variability and shifts in the distributions of temperature and precipitation, creating an environment of uncertainty for decision makers.  ...  The rural populations of the Altiplano of Peru and Bolivia are particularly vulnerable as they produce in a risky environment, relying mostly on local safety nets and institutions.  ...  Analysis of extreme events show increases in variability. The overall scenario for decision making is one of increased uncertainty.  ... 
doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/6/362006 fatcat:57ivqqekjfhsdcjdyzenoglgja

Predicting Response to Reassurances and Uncertainties in Bioterrorism Communications for Urban Populations in New York and California

Elaine Vaughan, Tim L. Tinker, Benedict I. Truman, Paul Edelson, Stephen S. Morse
2012 Biosecurity and Bioterrorism  
such as limited communications about risk uncertainties and significant social disparities in the success of risk management strategies, with less desirable outcomes for those most vulnerable to adverse  ...  This telephone survey study explored predictors of public reactions to uncertainty communications and reassurances from leaders related to the remediation stage of an urban-based bioterrorism incident.  ...  These findings are compatible with previous research that has shown fairness beliefs and trust to be especially important to individual decision making and interpretation of events under conditions of  ... 
doi:10.1089/bsp.2011.0100 pmid:22582813 pmcid:PMC4600346 fatcat:yunrqmwoorcw7e2hr2eaxvmccm

Modeling the decline of labor-sharing in the semi-desert region of Chile

Andres Baeza, Marco A. Janssen
2017 Regional Environmental Change  
In this work, we present the case of a group of rural communities in a semi-desert region of Chile, where cooperation in the form of labor-sharing has helped maintain higher agriculture yields, group cohesion  ...  The model, implemented in the framework of prospect theory, simulates the economic decisions of households to engage, or not, in labor-sharing agreements under different scenarios of water supply, water  ...  Acknowledgments We especially thank Ryan McAlister and the rest of the participants of the working group for their valuable comments during our meetings in Annapolis and Leipzig.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1243-0 fatcat:rtrouhaejrfehhwexksfj7fbea

A Trust Model For Advisor Networks In Multi-Agent Environments

2015 Zenodo  
Multi-agent systems can break interactions in distributed and heterogeneous environments.  ...  In this case, if an agent wants to interact with unknown provider agents, they need to request other agents to advise a trustworthy provider.  ...  However, even with this uncertainty in an environment, agents must be able to make wise decisions and successfully interact with other agents.  ... 
doi:10.5281/zenodo.32205 fatcat:ahxu4pziajakjmzbwqtf53efyu

Return on Assets Loss from Situational and Contingency Misfits

Richard M. Burton, Jørgen Lauridsen, Børge Obel
2002 Management science  
We confirm the hypotheses that firms with situational misfits or contingency misfits, or both, incur performance losses in return on assets compared with firms with no misfits.  ...  The model is a set of "if-then" misfit rules, in which misfits lead to a loss in performance; they are complements to the strategy and organizational contingency theory fit rules.  ...  Earlier versions of this paper were presented in seminars at Stockholm School of Economics, Technical University of Berlin, and Aarhus University.  ... 
doi:10.1287/mnsc.48.11.1461.262 fatcat:7lv7kz3dsfegflzpy5ilyukizi

Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise

Michael Smithson, Yakov Ben-Haim
2015 Risk Analysis  
(6,p.49) The use of analogs between new unknown phenomena and previous experience is commonplace, especially for decision making in complex dynamic environments, (21) but its robustness to uncertainty  ...  Kasperson, (14) claim that when uncertainties loom large, trust is important for decision making and getting things done.  ... 
doi:10.1111/risa.12397 pmid:25929177 fatcat:lotdvlxhkba6jkdlvxgf5wtaaq

Co-Operation in the Digital Age — Engendering Trust in Electronic Environments

A Seleznyov, M O Ahmed, S Hailes
2004 BT technology journal  
This work addresses this need by defining realistic models of digital trust that are capable of dealing with the uncertainties inherent in the environment and that are aware of the contexts of interactions  ...  The pervasive environment implies a massive increase in the scale of systems, the heterogeneity of devices and diversity in services available, making the complex task of centrally managing the environment  ...  However, local trust decisions are based on shared trust resources and they, in turn, are constantly changing.  ... 
doi:10.1023/b:bttj.0000047124.46203.fc fatcat:wkaaanwhynhnbomwg6n6mwoaw4

Managing the distribution channels for high‐technology products

Sunil Sahadev, S. Jayachandran
2004 European Journal of Marketing  
Use of behaviour-based coordination efforts can lead to higher levels of trust between the members in the dyad.  ...  The marketing task environment associated with high-technology products being highly dynamic and unpredictable, the attendant channel management functions become extremely challenging.  ...  Since the complexity and dynamics of the environment are difficult to assess under conditions of extreme uncertainty, decision making becomes a difficult task.  ... 
doi:10.1108/03090560410511159 fatcat:edp3tibp7fhf7efw4dwaggvfme

Navigating Mental Models of Risk and Uncertainty Within the Ocean Forecast System: An Oregon Case Study

Jessica Kuonen, Flaxen Conway, Ted Strub
2019 Weather, Climate, and Society  
and uncertainties act as key drivers in decision-making.  ...  A modified mental models research approach is applied to examine differences and similarities in perceptions of risk and comfort with uncertainty between two interdependent communities, the ocean "data  ...  Risk perception and comfort with uncertainty Uncertainty is part of every decision made by individuals, groups, or institutions and it is approached and communicated differently based on discipline, profession  ... 
doi:10.1175/wcas-d-18-0057.1 pmid:33204403 pmcid:PMC7668320 fatcat:sclz3xe5uzacfodouhud4inepi

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Enterprise Earnings Information Content: Evidence from China

Du Guoliang, Du Xunliang, Lin Wen
2021 International Journal of Economics Finance and Management Sciences  
Earnings information as a key factor affecting investors' decisions, has attracted much attention from scholars in recent years.  ...  forces enterprises to reduce earnings management and increase information disclosure, thus enhancing investors' trust in corporate earnings; 3. the expansion study found that the more high-quality accounting  ...  that market participants can reasonably perceive changes in the external environment and make positive feedback in the "negative" environment of policy uncertainty.  ... 
doi:10.11648/j.ijefm.20210905.15 fatcat:nyxtaco73beargxpeaz6i4syeq

Application of Creativity Techniques in the Creation of Organizational Strategies

Alireza Aslani, Marja Naaranoja, Tauno Kekale
2012 International Journal of Engineering Business Management  
solution for successful group meetings.  ...  kind of meeting will be ranked based on the Fuzzy MADM approach.  ...  Since decisions are usually made in a restricted environment, the importance of group decision making can be interpreted.  ... 
doi:10.5772/51359 fatcat:ywsckzqcozdcjfu22mqrz6zgli

Is it Apprpopriate to Use the Objective, Rational Decision- Making Framework as a Foundation for Modelling Social Systems?

Marko Hofmann, Heiko Hahn
2007 Information & Security An International Journal  
In the quest for objectivity and using the Rational Analytical Decision-Making Framework (RADMF) easily leads to erroneously take personal assumptions for apodictic postulations, which are originally based  ...  Second, there is also a non-negligible amount of uniqueness in each event that makes it extremely hard to find general rules, which may help to find reproducible behavior.  ...  groups, with, at least, incompatible goals (controversial).  ... 
doi:10.11610/isij.2203 fatcat:c5eqwuljnve5laeiwskmtsku2u

Conceptual Framework for Managing Uncertainty in a Collaborative Agri-Food Supply Chain Context [chapter]

Ana Esteso, M. M. E. Alemany, Angel Ortiz
2017 IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology  
If these uncertainties are not managed properly, they can have a negative impact on the agri-food supply chain (AFSC) performance, its customers, and the environment.  ...  Which elements can integrate a CF for managing uncertainty in a collaborative AFSC? The CF proposal is applied to the weather source of uncertainty in order to show its applicability.  ...  Supply chains uncertainty commonly refers to situations in which decisionmakers have not enough information about objectives to make decisions; have a vague idea of the supply chain and/or its environment  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-319-65151-4_64 fatcat:pcifunm7bzdu7kste5tg7ricci

Impact of business culture on empowerment

Ildikó Andó
2008 Periodica Polytechnica Social and Management Sciences  
Based on the results of the survey this study reveals the main cultural elements of companies and shows what kind of leadership methods can be used efficiently in special organizational circumstances.  ...  Researchers claim, that national culture is in strong connection with company culture. According to this theory, company culture determines efficient leadership techniques.  ...  The decision-making process, motivation and working in groups are crucial areas in an individualistic organization.  ... 
doi:10.3311/ fatcat:jfc5hxwin5fhzpll2uypg6lzeq
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