Filters








2,447 Hits in 7.2 sec

Transient Dynamics of Epidemic Spreading and Its Mitigation on Large Networks [article]

Chul-Ho Lee, Srinivas Tenneti, Do Young Eun
2019 arXiv   pre-print
In this paper, we aim to understand the transient dynamics of a susceptible-infected (SI) epidemic spreading process on a large network.  ...  As its applications, we further develop vaccination policies with or without knowledge of already-infected nodes, to mitigate the future epidemic spreading to the extent possible, and demonstrate their  ...  In this case, the spread of an epidemic already took place over the large-scale network.  ... 
arXiv:1903.00167v3 fatcat:babgpzdbnzagxkw4scpgvyqu3q

Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity

Alexei V. Tkachenko, Sergei Maslov, Ahmed Elbanna, George N. Wong, Zachary J. Weiner, Nigel Goldenfeld
2021 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America  
Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales.  ...  Transient and long-term levels of heterogeneity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic and from real-life face-to-face contact networks.  ...  a gradual buildup of population immunity has on the spread of an epidemic.  ... 
doi:10.1073/pnas.2015972118 pmid:33833080 fatcat:zpo4jbs3mranbcjpf7xjya6uey

Social Heterogeneity Drives Complex Patterns of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Insights From a Novel Stochastic Heterogeneous Epidemic Model (SHEM)

Alexander V. Maltsev, Michael D. Stern
2021 Frontiers in Physics  
The design of our new model allows it to be applied in future studies of real-world scenarios on any scale, limited only by computing memory and the ability to determine the underlying topology and parameters  ...  We investigated this hypothesis by developing and using a new Stochastic Heterogeneous Epidemic Model that focuses on subpopulations that are vulnerable in the sense of having an increased likelihood of  ...  It follows that it is possible to control the spread of the epidemic through the mitigation of hotspot amplification.  ... 
doi:10.3389/fphy.2020.609224 fatcat:xlpbwlfbjnffznkahirge7rvt4

Persistent heterogeneity not short-term overdispersion determines herd immunity to COVID-19 [article]

Alexei V Tkachenko, Sergei Maslov, Ahmed Elbanna, George Wong, Zachary Weiner, Nigel Goldenfeld
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
We estimate social and biological contributions to persistent heterogeneity using data on real-life face-to-face contact networks and age variation of the incidence rate during the COVID-19 epidemic, and  ...  rate of virus shedding at the peak of infectivity while attending a large gathering without appropriate mitigation.  ...  it will change our understanding of epidemic dynamics and the efficacy of various mitigation strategies.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.07.26.20162420 fatcat:rb4qro4p6be6taemqynz5whhnu

How dynamic social activity shapes an epidemic: waves, plateaus, and endemic state [article]

Alexei V Tkachenko, Sergei Maslov, Tong Wang, Ahmed Elbanna, George N Wong, Nigel Goldenfeld
2021 medRxiv   pre-print
It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics.  ...  Individual waves are suppressed at the state of Transient Collective Immunity (TCI), which subsequently degrades due to the dynamic nature of social activity.  ...  On one hand, available high-resolution data on real-world temporal contact networks allows direct modeling of epidemic spread on those networks.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2021.01.28.21250701 fatcat:bh7cohanknbnxfo4hhctfzoogm

Stochastic social behavior coupled to COVID-19 dynamics leads to waves, plateaus and an endemic state [article]

Alexei V. Tkachenko, Sergei Maslov, Tong Wang, Ahmed Elbanna, George N. Wong, Nigel Goldenfeld
2021 arXiv   pre-print
It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics.  ...  Our model captures multiple features of real-life epidemics such as COVID-19, including prolonged plateaus and multiple waves, which are transiently suppressed due to the dynamic nature of social activity  ...  On one hand, available high-resolution data on real-world temporal contact networks allows direct modeling of epidemic spread on those networks.  ... 
arXiv:2101.12275v2 fatcat:eitepkky5fbafbwbgu2bkqi2xy

Coupled Dynamic Model of Resource Diffusion and Epidemic Spreading in Time-Varying Multiplex Networks

Ping Huang, Xiao-Long Chen, Ming Tang, Shi-Min Cai, Ye Wu
2021 Complexity  
For that, we propose a coupled resource-epidemic (RNR-SIS) dynamic model (coupled model for short) on a time-varying multiplex network to synchronously simulate the resource diffusion and epidemic spreading  ...  Thus, the coupled dynamics of resource diffusion and epidemic spreading have been widely investigated when the recovery of diseases significantly depends on the resources from neighbors in static social  ...  c i , m i , and β on the epidemic spreading and its outbreak threshold.  ... 
doi:10.1155/2021/6629105 fatcat:pq7rrakfuvamdbe2iw3y5dx43q

An Epidemic Spreading Model on the Adaptive Dual networks

Changlun Zhang, Nan Ning, Zhanyong Jin, Jian Zhang
2017 IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science  
By constructing two adaptive networks, we consider a new link breaking phenomenon on the epidemic spreading process and the heterogeneity of the link breaking probability.  ...  In this paper, we carry out an epidemic spreading model on the adaptive dual network based on the machine to study the interplay between the two processes.  ...  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank the anonymous referees for helpful comments and constructive suggestions.  ... 
doi:10.9790/0837-2205025463 fatcat:2lgzuop7sbampdiaybxf27wola

Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks

Naoki Masuda, Petter Holme
2013 F1000Prime Reports  
Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics.  ...  Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals.  ...  Acknowledgements We acknowledge Taro Takaguchi for critical reading of the manuscript.  ... 
doi:10.12703/p5-6 pmid:23513178 pmcid:PMC3590785 fatcat:jxbaoosvjjeapbw7f5fjds7slm

Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity [article]

Alexei V. Tkachenko, Sergei Maslov, Ahmed Elbanna, George N. Wong, Zachary J. Weiner, Nigel Goldenfeld
2021 arXiv   pre-print
Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales.  ...  Transient and long-term levels of heterogeneity are estimated by using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic as well as from real-life face-to-face contact networks.  ...  it will change our understanding of epidemic dynamics and the efficacy of various mitigation strategies.  ... 
arXiv:2008.08142v2 fatcat:ytqawexh5bforoawh57k72tipm

Traffic-driven epidemic spreading on networks of mobile agents

Han-Xin Yang, Wen-Xu Wang, Ying-Cheng Lai, Bing-Hong Wang
2012 Europhysics letters  
Examples of spreading dynamics that can affect the daily life and functioning of a modern society include the propagation of diseases and large-scale spread of computer viruses.  ...  This can be of value to devising emergency control or policy to mitigate or even eliminate spreading of harmful viruses or diseases on networks of critical interest. Model.  ... 
doi:10.1209/0295-5075/98/68003 fatcat:56yays5rjje6tafj6z3rjfgofa

Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales

Yun Tao, Jessica L. Hite, Kevin D. Lafferty, David J. D. Earn, Nita Bharti
2021 Theoretical Ecology  
Identifying and predicting transients across scales, from within-host to community-level patterns, plays an important role in combating ongoing epidemics and mitigating the risk of future outbreaks.  ...  spread across spatial networks; and (iv) increasing species richness in a community can provide transient protection to individuals against infection.  ...  Introduction Since the pioneering work of Kermack and McKendrick (1927) , a large proportion of epidemiological modeling has been based on analyses of deterministic, nonlinear dynamical systems (Guckenheimer  ... 
doi:10.1007/s12080-021-00514-w pmid:34075317 pmcid:PMC8156581 fatcat:llsvefoor5eqncaizckbxifgq4

Emerging Polynomial Growth Trends in COVID-19 Pandemic Data and Their Reconciliation with Compartment Based Models [article]

Katarina Bodova, Richard Kollar
2020 arXiv   pre-print
T_M is a constant and t is the duration of the epidemic outbreak.  ...  We show how our findings can be applied to improve predictions of the reported pandemic data and estimate some epidemic parameters.  ...  The authors would like to thank Vlado Boža, Lukáš Poláček, Michal Burger and the modelling team of Institute of Health Policy for their useful comments and help.  ... 
arXiv:2005.06933v1 fatcat:5abodi2fsfah5miz65iqciwro4

Societal heterogeneity contributes to complex dynamic patterns of the COVID-19 pandemics: insights from a novel Stochastic Heterogeneous Epidemic Model (SHEM) [article]

Alexander V Maltsev, Michael Stern
2020 biorxiv/medrxiv  
Here we developed a new Stochastic Heterogeneous Epidemic Model (SHEM) to investigate genesis of complex pandemic patterns with the focus on the role of heterogenous societal structure.  ...  If this scenario becomes a reality, it is important (i) to develop the vaccine and/or effective treatment before the second wave; (ii) to warn people living in suburbs that it is these isolated areas that  ...  Acknowledgments The work was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute on Aging, National Institute of Health.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.07.10.20150813 pmid:32676619 pmcid:PMC7359544 fatcat:pypoxif7cfctjobxve3mdpq75q

The role of social structure and dynamics in the maintenance of endemic disease

Matthew J. Silk, Nina H. Fefferman
2021 Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology  
However, it can be just as important to understand how social networks can contribute to endemic disease dynamics, in which pathogens are maintained at stable levels for prolonged periods of time.  ...  Social interactions are required for the direct transmission of infectious diseases. Consequently, the social network structure of populations plays a key role in shaping infectious disease dynamics.  ...  Here, it is important to note that, in the context of network-based epidemiology, endemic disease is not simply a successfully mitigated epidemic.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s00265-021-03055-8 pmid:34421183 pmcid:PMC8370858 fatcat:yhuouqewn5gybkmzwnsaldqt4a
« Previous Showing results 1 — 15 out of 2,447 results