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Transient Dynamics of Epidemic Spreading and Its Mitigation on Large Networks
[article]
2019
arXiv
pre-print
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In this paper, we aim to understand the transient dynamics of a susceptible-infected (SI) epidemic spreading process on a large network. ...
As its applications, we further develop vaccination policies with or without knowledge of already-infected nodes, to mitigate the future epidemic spreading to the extent possible, and demonstrate their ...
In this case, the spread of an epidemic already took place over the large-scale network. ...
arXiv:1903.00167v3
fatcat:babgpzdbnzagxkw4scpgvyqu3q
Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity
2021
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
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Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. ...
Transient and long-term levels of heterogeneity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic and from real-life face-to-face contact networks. ...
a gradual buildup of population immunity has on the spread of an epidemic. ...
doi:10.1073/pnas.2015972118
pmid:33833080
fatcat:zpo4jbs3mranbcjpf7xjya6uey
Social Heterogeneity Drives Complex Patterns of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Insights From a Novel Stochastic Heterogeneous Epidemic Model (SHEM)
2021
Frontiers in Physics
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The design of our new model allows it to be applied in future studies of real-world scenarios on any scale, limited only by computing memory and the ability to determine the underlying topology and parameters ...
We investigated this hypothesis by developing and using a new Stochastic Heterogeneous Epidemic Model that focuses on subpopulations that are vulnerable in the sense of having an increased likelihood of ...
It follows that it is possible to control the spread of the epidemic through the mitigation of hotspot amplification. ...
doi:10.3389/fphy.2020.609224
fatcat:xlpbwlfbjnffznkahirge7rvt4
Persistent heterogeneity not short-term overdispersion determines herd immunity to COVID-19
[article]
2020
medRxiv
pre-print
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We estimate social and biological contributions to persistent heterogeneity using data on real-life face-to-face contact networks and age variation of the incidence rate during the COVID-19 epidemic, and ...
rate of virus shedding at the peak of infectivity while attending a large gathering without appropriate mitigation. ...
it will change our understanding of epidemic dynamics and the efficacy of various mitigation strategies. ...
doi:10.1101/2020.07.26.20162420
fatcat:rb4qro4p6be6taemqynz5whhnu
How dynamic social activity shapes an epidemic: waves, plateaus, and endemic state
[article]
2021
medRxiv
pre-print
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It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. ...
Individual waves are suppressed at the state of Transient Collective Immunity (TCI), which subsequently degrades due to the dynamic nature of social activity. ...
On one hand, available high-resolution data on real-world temporal contact networks allows direct modeling of epidemic spread on those networks. ...
doi:10.1101/2021.01.28.21250701
fatcat:bh7cohanknbnxfo4hhctfzoogm
Stochastic social behavior coupled to COVID-19 dynamics leads to waves, plateaus and an endemic state
[article]
2021
arXiv
pre-print
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It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. ...
Our model captures multiple features of real-life epidemics such as COVID-19, including prolonged plateaus and multiple waves, which are transiently suppressed due to the dynamic nature of social activity ...
On one hand, available high-resolution data on real-world temporal contact networks allows direct modeling of epidemic spread on those networks. ...
arXiv:2101.12275v2
fatcat:eitepkky5fbafbwbgu2bkqi2xy
Coupled Dynamic Model of Resource Diffusion and Epidemic Spreading in Time-Varying Multiplex Networks
2021
Complexity
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For that, we propose a coupled resource-epidemic (RNR-SIS) dynamic model (coupled model for short) on a time-varying multiplex network to synchronously simulate the resource diffusion and epidemic spreading ...
Thus, the coupled dynamics of resource diffusion and epidemic spreading have been widely investigated when the recovery of diseases significantly depends on the resources from neighbors in static social ...
c i , m i , and β on the epidemic spreading and its outbreak threshold. ...
doi:10.1155/2021/6629105
fatcat:pq7rrakfuvamdbe2iw3y5dx43q
An Epidemic Spreading Model on the Adaptive Dual networks
2017
IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science
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By constructing two adaptive networks, we consider a new link breaking phenomenon on the epidemic spreading process and the heterogeneity of the link breaking probability. ...
In this paper, we carry out an epidemic spreading model on the adaptive dual network based on the machine to study the interplay between the two processes. ...
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank the anonymous referees for helpful comments and constructive suggestions. ...
doi:10.9790/0837-2205025463
fatcat:2lgzuop7sbampdiaybxf27wola
Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks
2013
F1000Prime Reports
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Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. ...
Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. ...
Acknowledgements We acknowledge Taro Takaguchi for critical reading of the manuscript. ...
doi:10.12703/p5-6
pmid:23513178
pmcid:PMC3590785
fatcat:jxbaoosvjjeapbw7f5fjds7slm
Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity
[article]
2021
arXiv
pre-print
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2020 pre-print arXiv:2008.08142v1 fatcat:j2fquxuf3vc5tk2wy7umnje2f4
Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. ...
Transient and long-term levels of heterogeneity are estimated by using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic as well as from real-life face-to-face contact networks. ...
it will change our understanding of epidemic dynamics and the efficacy of various mitigation strategies. ...
arXiv:2008.08142v2
fatcat:ytqawexh5bforoawh57k72tipm
Traffic-driven epidemic spreading on networks of mobile agents
2012
Europhysics letters
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Examples of spreading dynamics that can affect the daily life and functioning of a modern society include the propagation of diseases and large-scale spread of computer viruses. ...
This can be of value to devising emergency control or policy to mitigate or even eliminate spreading of harmful viruses or diseases on networks of critical interest. Model. ...
doi:10.1209/0295-5075/98/68003
fatcat:56yays5rjje6tafj6z3rjfgofa
Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales
2021
Theoretical Ecology
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Identifying and predicting transients across scales, from within-host to community-level patterns, plays an important role in combating ongoing epidemics and mitigating the risk of future outbreaks. ...
spread across spatial networks; and (iv) increasing species richness in a community can provide transient protection to individuals against infection. ...
Introduction Since the pioneering work of Kermack and McKendrick (1927) , a large proportion of epidemiological modeling has been based on analyses of deterministic, nonlinear dynamical systems (Guckenheimer ...
doi:10.1007/s12080-021-00514-w
pmid:34075317
pmcid:PMC8156581
fatcat:llsvefoor5eqncaizckbxifgq4
Emerging Polynomial Growth Trends in COVID-19 Pandemic Data and Their Reconciliation with Compartment Based Models
[article]
2020
arXiv
pre-print
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T_M is a constant and t is the duration of the epidemic outbreak. ...
We show how our findings can be applied to improve predictions of the reported pandemic data and estimate some epidemic parameters. ...
The authors would like to thank Vlado Boža, Lukáš Poláček, Michal Burger and the modelling team of Institute of Health Policy for their useful comments and help. ...
arXiv:2005.06933v1
fatcat:5abodi2fsfah5miz65iqciwro4
Societal heterogeneity contributes to complex dynamic patterns of the COVID-19 pandemics: insights from a novel Stochastic Heterogeneous Epidemic Model (SHEM)
[article]
2020
biorxiv/medrxiv
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Here we developed a new Stochastic Heterogeneous Epidemic Model (SHEM) to investigate genesis of complex pandemic patterns with the focus on the role of heterogenous societal structure. ...
If this scenario becomes a reality, it is important (i) to develop the vaccine and/or effective treatment before the second wave; (ii) to warn people living in suburbs that it is these isolated areas that ...
Acknowledgments The work was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute on Aging, National Institute of Health. ...
doi:10.1101/2020.07.10.20150813
pmid:32676619
pmcid:PMC7359544
fatcat:pypoxif7cfctjobxve3mdpq75q
The role of social structure and dynamics in the maintenance of endemic disease
2021
Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology
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However, it can be just as important to understand how social networks can contribute to endemic disease dynamics, in which pathogens are maintained at stable levels for prolonged periods of time. ...
Social interactions are required for the direct transmission of infectious diseases. Consequently, the social network structure of populations plays a key role in shaping infectious disease dynamics. ...
Here, it is important to note that, in the context of network-based epidemiology, endemic disease is not simply a successfully mitigated epidemic. ...
doi:10.1007/s00265-021-03055-8
pmid:34421183
pmcid:PMC8370858
fatcat:yhuouqewn5gybkmzwnsaldqt4a
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