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The complexity of forecast testing

Lance Fortnow, Rakesh Vohra
2008 Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce - EC '08  
We look at the computational complexity of such forecasters and exhibit a linear-time test and a distribution of nature such that any forecaster without knowledge of the future that can fool the test must  ...  We consider tests that given a finite sequence of forecast predictions and outcomes will either pass or fail the forecaster.  ...  Tests More Complex than the Forecast We show that no forecasting algorithm can ignorantly pass a test that is more complex itself.  ... 
doi:10.1145/1386790.1386814 dblp:conf/sigecom/FortnowV08 fatcat:vjqnluvkwjd6fasdow4bwmpcra

The complexity of forecast testing

Lance Fortnow, Rakesh V. Vohra
2008 ACM SIGecom Exchanges  
We look at the computational complexity of such forecasters and exhibit a linear-time test and a distribution of nature such that any forecaster without knowledge of the future that can fool the test must  ...  We consider tests that given a finite sequence of forecast predictions and outcomes will either pass or fail the forecaster.  ...  Tests More Complex than the Forecast We show that no forecasting algorithm can ignorantly pass a test that is more complex itself.  ... 
doi:10.1145/1486877.1486885 fatcat:wwjvctnuaffe3ktsxqzucgeuke

The Complexity of Forecast Testing

2009 Econometrica  
We look at the computational complexity of such forecasters and exhibit a linear-time test and a distribution of nature such that any forecaster without knowledge of the future that can fool the test must  ...  We consider tests that given a finite sequence of forecast predictions and outcomes will either pass or fail the forecaster.  ...  Tests More Complex than the Forecast We show that no forecasting algorithm can ignorantly pass a test that is more complex itself.  ... 
doi:10.3982/ecta7163 fatcat:ignd4cxs5jbqvj7qvouj2qt4ka

Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence

Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong
2015 Journal of Business Research  
None of the papers provide a balance of evidence that complexity improves forecast accuracy.  ...  They can rate the simplicity of forecasters' procedures using the questionnaire at simple-forecasting.com.  ...  The titles and abstracts of forecasting papers in academic journals attest to the proliferation of complex methods.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.026 fatcat:g5tutodwrrawhpneaeibnnnmfe

Verification of analysed and forecasted winter precipitation in complex terrain

M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson
2015 The Cryosphere  
<p><strong>Abstract.  ...  For the first time, a detailed objective validation scheme was performed highlighting many aspects of forecast quality.  ...  Abstract.  ... 
doi:10.5194/tc-9-587-2015 fatcat:itjdr2likrdglomggdpolmpesa

Methodical Approach to the Formation of the Forecast Labor Intensity of the Development (Modernization) of Complex Technical Systems

Alexander G. Podolsky, Alexey V. Babkin
2019 Accounting Analysis Auditing  
The subject of the research are methodological aspects of formation of the forecast of the complexity of creation (modernization) of complex technical systems. Purpose.  ...  stages of development: the development of sketch and technical projects; development of design documentation for manufacturing a prototype; prototyping; performance of state tests of the prototype; the  ...  The subject of the research are methodological aspects of formation of the forecast of the complexity of creation (modernization) of complex technical systems.  ... 
doi:10.26794/2408-9303-2018-5-2-52-59 doaj:e8ff6ede8b654df3acb509c0f7a9bde7 fatcat:zqssqqmyi5gnnnbnamnuitna3u

Forecasting Sun versus Shade in Complex Terrain for the 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games

Rosie Howard, Roland Stull
2011 Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS)  
For example, the morning of a ski race, testing may be on shaded snow; however, the sun could hit the piste in places later during the race.  ...  sciences, university of British columbia, 6339 stores road, vancouver Bc v6t 1Z4, canada e-mail: rhoward@eos.ubc.ca The abstract for this article can be found in this issue, following the table of contents  ... 
doi:10.1175/2011bams-d-11-00017.1 fatcat:yrzmry5rpvg4rdqqutkacgo46u

Visualization of the UK Stock Market Based on Complex Networks for Company's Revenue Forecast [chapter]

Ziyi Wang, Jingti Han
2015 IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology  
As an emerging research field, the complex network theory is able to depict the most daily complex systems' topologies, but in terms of financial market analysis, it still needs more attention.  ...  This paper aims to explore the macro-characteristics of the UK stock market.  ...  The authors would like to thank Prof. Kecheng Liu for engaging discussion. We also thank the editor and reviewers for their insightful comments and helpful suggestions.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-319-16274-4_19 fatcat:f4fhhe6lqzcc7gfpt45ahxgcdu

Communicating complex forecasts: an analysis of the approach in Nepal's flood early warning system

Mirianna Budimir, Amy Donovan, Sarah Brown, Puja Shakya, Dilip Gautam, Madhab Uprety, Michael Cranston, Alison Sneddon, Paul Smith, Sumit Dugar
2020 Geoscience Communication  
The availability and utilisation of simple and complex flood forecasts in Nepal, and their integration into dissemination, and decision support tools were reviewed, considering their impact on improving  ...  Abstract. Early warning systems have the potential to save lives and improve resilience.  ...  We would like to thank the Z Zurich Foundation for funding provided as part of the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance, and the enumerators and Practical Action Nepal staff who collected the data at community  ... 
doi:10.5194/gc-3-49-2020 fatcat:y5bzfhilvbfizie5pzykntv5yu

OPTIMIZATION OF QUANTITATIVE INDICATORS OF COMPLEX SEISMO-HYDROGEOCHEMICAL MONITORING WITH THE PURPOSE OF FORECASTING STRONG EARTHQUAKES

A. U. Abdullayev, Institute of Seismology KN MON RK, Almaty, Kazakhstan, Sh. S. Yusupov, u.abdullaev@mail.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1975-4569, Institute of Seismology named after Mavlyanov, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan; shuhrat-1951@mail.ru
2020 NEWS of National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan  
WITH THE PURPOSE OF FORECASTING STRONG EARTHQUAKES Abstract.  ...  This scientific concept has determined the main way to achieve the goal -the creation of continuous mode multidisciplinary observations at special test sites on the principle: the wider the area and the  ...  Submission of an article to the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan implies that the described work has not been published previously (except in the form of an abstract or as part  ... 
doi:10.32014/2020.2518-170x.26 fatcat:mp4plwcjnfd2jpphy6yjuv2buu

Operational Flood Forecasting on the Basis of Complex Proactive Modeling and Integration of Heterogeneous Data

Andrey Mikhailovich Alabyan, Viacheslav Alekseevich Zelentsov, Inna Nikolaevna Krylenko, Semen Alekseevich Potryasaev, Boris Vladimirovich Sokolov, Rafael Midhatovich Yusupov
2015 Труды СПИИРАН  
Operational Flood Forecasting on the Basis of Complex Proactive Modeling and Integration of Heterogeneous Data. Abstract.  ...  Practical testing of the developed software prototype has confirmed the possibility of automatic high-precision operational (from several hours to several days) forecasting of floodingzones and depths  ...  Operational Flood Forecasting on the Basis of Complex Proactive Modeling and Integration of Heterogeneous Data. СПИИРАН. 2015. Вып. 4(41).  ... 
doi:10.15622/sp.41.1 fatcat:6b5csoai5fhufn5olkjavorzbm

Overview of the Russian and Foreign Experience of Agent-Based Modeling of Complex Socio-Economic Systems of the Meso-Level
Обзор российского и зарубежного опыта агент-ориентированного моделирования сложных социально-экономических систем мезоуровня

Elena Chekmareva
2016 Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast  
The paper presents an overview of the agent-oriented models of complex socio-economic systems of the meso-level developed by Russian and foreign scientists.  ...  However, the important criterion was the availability of information about the testing of the constructed model on the actual data for a specific municipality.  ...  forecast the processes at the macro-and meso-level and test different options of controlling actions.  ... 
doi:10.15838/esc.2016.2.44.14 fatcat:u4nyodotb5cbbboicuy5yi65cq

DISCUSSION ON TESTS OF RENAL FUNCTION: (ABSTRACT.)

H Maclean
1922 Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine  
Lastly, where this test appears to be in opposition to the clinical picture presented by the patient, we have always put more faith in clinical observation than in the result of any test of the renal function  ...  The patient must be on a known diet, and no food or drink allowed during the duration of the test. At St.  ...  (ABSTRACT.)  ... 
pmid:19982629 pmcid:PMC2101707 fatcat:xwfqlzu3yna4vjpt56c5b2vbti

A Forecasting Model for Economic Growth and CO2 Emission Based on Industry 4.0 Political Policy under the Government Power: Adapting a Second-Order Autoregressive-SEM

Sutthichaimethee, Chatchorfa, Suyaprom
2019 Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market and Complexity  
The forecasting model also reflects that the economy factor has an adjustment ability to equilibrium stronger than that of the environment factor; further, it shows that the relationship between the factors  ...  The second order autoregressive-SEM is a model that is appropriate for long-term forecasting (2020–2035), and accounts for the specifics of the Thai government strategy set under the Industry 4.0 policy  ...  Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.  ... 
doi:10.3390/joitmc5030069 fatcat:4lkdh5wet5hrjevbyxuurr3rzu

On technology for modeling and forecasting the interrelated development of regional fuel and energy complexes of Russia and Mongolia

Alexander Kazakov, Anna Lempert, Alexander Stolbov, V.A. Stennikov, N.I. Voropai, S.V. Alekseenko, S.P. Filippov, N.A. Yusifbeyli, B. Sereter, P. Changwei, F.-J. Lin, M. Negnevitsky (+2 others)
2020 E3S Web of Conferences  
The paper considers the main ideas of proposed computational technology for scenario modeling and forecasting the development of the national fuel and energy complexes of Russia and Mongolia, regarding  ...  The application of MAS and ABSM paradigms for forecasting and evaluating the state of the fuel and energy sector in Russia and Mongolia allows one to organize a step-by-step research of the energy system  ...  The research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project No 18-510-94006 MOKHM_a.  ... 
doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202020907019 fatcat:p53lebtzcfe6deu44vdidw4pdu
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