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The Mythical Swing Voter [article]

David Rothschild, Sharad Goel, Andrew Gelman, Doug Rivers
2014 arXiv   pre-print
This work shows great promise for using non-representative polling to measure public opinion and the first product of this new polling technique raises the possibility that decades of large, reported swings  ...  We find that reported swings in public opinion polls are generally not due to actual shifts in vote intention, but rather are the result of temporary periods of relatively low response rates among supporters  ...  Correcting the spurious swings thus The Mythical Swing Voter • 1:3 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qualitatively changes the narrative of the campaign  ... 
arXiv:1406.7581v1 fatcat:lkemtiem3belrevvqo25nde2na

The Mythical Swing Voter

Andrew Gelman, Sharad Goel, Douglas Rivers, David Rothschild
2016 Quarterly Journal of Political Science  
Most surveys conducted during the 2012 U.S. presidential campaign showed large swings in support for the Democratic and Republican candidates, especially before and after the first presidential debate.  ...  We conclude that vote swings in 2012 were mostly sample artifacts and that real swings were quite small. While this account is at odds with most contemporaneous analyses,  ...  But there is a puzzle: candidates appeal to swing voters in debates, campaigns target advertising toward swing voters, journalists discuss swing voters, and the polls do indeed swing -but it is hard to  ... 
doi:10.1561/100.00015031 fatcat:t53vsjdnffdwfbvwrnwpajvjfq

Page 141 of Journal of Political Economy Vol. 65, Issue 2 [page]

1957 Journal of Political Economy  
To sup- pose otherwise is to ignore the existence 141 of information costs —that is, to theorize about a mythical world instead of the real one.  ...  Therefore, those who command such resources are able to swing more than their proportional weight political- ly. This outcome is not the result of ir- rationality or dishonesty.  ... 

The Electoral Choices of Voters with Coalition‐Straddling Consideration Sets

Jacob Sohlberg, Annika Fredén
2020 Social Science Quarterly  
The aim of this article is to examine these voters' behavior and, by extension, the importance of this new concept.  ...  If the voter believes that the vote decision is challenging, and makes the effort to use vote advice applications, it would imply that the individual is aware of his or her key role for the election outcome  ...  The idea of swing voters is another similar concept (Gelman et al., 2016 ), yet it makes little difference between voters who waver between parties of the same coalition and those who are undecided between  ... 
doi:10.1111/ssqu.12813 fatcat:bqiycjezavhvvd5paxq3zfmym4

If I Could Hold a Seminar for Political Journalists…

Morris P. Fiorina
2013 The Forum  
Chief among these are the confusion between polarization and party sorting, along with the tendency to attribute any changes in voter behavior to changes in the voters, rather than to changes in the candidates  ...  A significant part of what journalists get wrong no doubt reflects the unrepresentative political contexts in which they live and work. 2 The difference between the GSS and the lower ANES series is a reflection  ...  As another example, consider the concept of " swing voters " ( Mayer 2008 ( Mayer , 2012 .  ... 
doi:10.1515/forum-2013-0011 fatcat:jwa45jzrjfa2tl275xbrfq6qce

The Case for Identity Politics: Polarization, Demographic Change, and Racial Appeals. By Christopher T. Stout. Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press, 2020. 268p. $42.50 cloth

Daniel HoSang, Joseph Lowndes
2021 Perspectives on Politics  
With respect to the unions, the first substantive chapter of the book explores how public service employees are portrayed as manipulating the system to gain advantages that private workers do not have.  ...  Although I find much of the book's argument persuasive, I am skeptical of the authors' conclusions in this chapter.  ...  bloc of white swing voters must be addressed through a deracialized campaign framework.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s1537592721003224 fatcat:li7njfrs35hzxekavtp5ab6sxe

Producers, Parasites, Patriots: Race and the New Right-Wing Politics of Precarity. By Daniel Martinez HoSang and Joseph E. Lowndes. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 2019. 208p. $80.00 cloth, $19.95 paper

Christopher Stout
2021 Perspectives on Politics  
With respect to the unions, the first substantive chapter of the book explores how public service employees are portrayed as manipulating the system to gain advantages that private workers do not have.  ...  Although I find much of the book's argument persuasive, I am skeptical of the authors' conclusions in this chapter.  ...  bloc of white swing voters must be addressed through a deracialized campaign framework.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s1537592721002905 fatcat:4x7h77mizvdg7oqcg52bddy2xm

Response to Daniel Martinez HoSang and Joseph E. Lowndes's Review of The Case for Identity Politics: Polarization, Demographic Change, and Racial Appeals

Christopher T. Stout
2021 Perspectives on Politics  
With respect to the unions, the first substantive chapter of the book explores how public service employees are portrayed as manipulating the system to gain advantages that private workers do not have.  ...  Although I find much of the book's argument persuasive, I am skeptical of the authors' conclusions in this chapter.  ...  bloc of white swing voters must be addressed through a deracialized campaign framework.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s1537592721003236 fatcat:kgylvilvzfdmfkvvrypg3vbe5e

Response to Christopher Stout's Review of Producers, Parasites, Patriots: Race and the New Right-Wing Politics of Precarity

Daniel Martinez HoSang, Joseph E. Lowndes
2021 Perspectives on Politics  
With respect to the unions, the first substantive chapter of the book explores how public service employees are portrayed as manipulating the system to gain advantages that private workers do not have.  ...  Although I find much of the book's argument persuasive, I am skeptical of the authors' conclusions in this chapter.  ...  bloc of white swing voters must be addressed through a deracialized campaign framework.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s1537592721002917 fatcat:4tl2aev2ezfhnlnipa4gzxtw2i

Page 69 of Woman's Journal Vol. 1, Issue 4 [page]

1917 Woman's Journal  
It was taken for granted in a vague, James was “a indefinite sort of way that , power,” that he could swing mythical elusive tes, that he was a man to court and consult y playing ‘em all safely James never  ...  And furthermore clare that they cannot discover many dozens persons whom James averred signed his papers as true and lawful voters, and upon this point they seek further enlightenment from James Now, can  ... 

Areas of research in political advertising: a review and research agenda

Eric Van Steenburg
2015 International Journal of Advertising  
A review of 129 published research articles specifically related to the use of advertising in the marketing of elections uncovered eight themes within this body of work, and helped identify gaps that led  ...  Yet the sundry natures of research findings to date demonstrate a body of work searching for direction and a unifying theory.  ...  the final manuscript.  ... 
doi:10.1080/02650487.2014.996194 fatcat:rasxwxole5epzmh6kofs6faubu

The democratic struggle for power: the 2008 Presidential campaign in the USA

Jeffrey C. Alexander
2009 Journal of Power  
Voters have the last word in the struggle for political power.  ...  'I need to tell you again,' Scarborough insists, 'that this is the most extraordinary event I've ever seen. Watch for Colorado to swing Obama's way.'  ... 
doi:10.1080/17540290902760881 fatcat:5vrd2js5engqtgxrobwodtwqai

The "Youthquake" in British Politics: Myth or Reality?

Bradley Allsop, Ben Kisby
2019 Societies  
group of voters in the 2017 general election in the UK, as compared to the previous election.  ...  The article explains why their rejection of the idea of a youthquake having occurred is problematic, focusing on the limitations of the BES data, the team's analysis of it and the narrowness of their conception  ...  Author Contributions: Both authors contributed to the analysis within the article and drafted the manuscript. Funding: This article draws on research funded by the University of Lincoln.  ... 
doi:10.3390/soc9040068 fatcat:rtjqrccbtjew5fljfhg3h5s5ya

¿IMPORTAN LAS CAMPAÑAS (EN LAS NUEVAS DEMOCRACIAS)? INTERÉS DE LA CAMPAÑA, ELECCIÓN DEL VOTO Y SATISFACCIÓN DE LA ENCUESTA

Rodrigo CASTRO CORNEJO
2019 Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública  
These voters are less likely to connect their vote choice with their political predispositions and have a disproportionate likelihood to change their vote choice throughout the campaign.  ...  This gives the impression that campaigns are more consequential than they are, when, in fact, vote shifts are a function of voters' increased motivation to engage in a survey interview.  ...  The Mythical Swing Voter. Quarterly Journal of Po- litical Science. Gilljam, Mikael and Donald Granberg (1993). "Should we take don't know for an answer?"  ... 
doi:10.14201/rlop.22343 fatcat:pjhojtnzyzauvmnde7ardplwuy

Remaking Italy? Place Configurations and Italian Electoral Politics under the 'Second Republic'

John Agnew
2007 Modern Italy  
The dominant emphasis on either television or the emergence of 'politics without territory' has obscured the importance of this geographical restructuring.  ...  Such a system it has been claimed would undermine the geographical structure of electoral politics that contributed to party system immobilism in the past.  ...  In 2001 only 400,000 votes separated the coalitions nationally in the SMDs, while 3.3 million more voters preferred the Polo/Casa parties in the PR ballot (Parker & Natale 2002, p. 669).  ... 
doi:10.1080/13532940601134791 fatcat:2d7yxsodt5funa6pgueiz7gnfe
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