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Spatial super-spreaders and super-susceptibles in human movement networks [article]

Wei Chien Benny Chin, Roland Bouffanais
2020 arXiv   pre-print
By constructing the directed and weighted human movement networks and integrating human flow intensity with two neighborhood diversity metrics, we are able to pinpoint super-spreader and super-susceptible  ...  Here, we propose a quantitative and systematic framework to identify spatial super-spreaders and the novel concept of super-susceptibles, i.e. respectively, places most likely to contribute to disease  ...  Author contributions statement W.C.B.C. conceived and conducted the experiment and the data analysis. W.C.B.C. and R.B. analyzed the results and wrote the manuscript.  ... 
arXiv:2005.05063v1 fatcat:3qxtqttk2jbyhk6mvh7uhvu3mm

Spatial super-spreaders and super-susceptibles in human movement networks

Wei Chien Benny Chin, Roland Bouffanais
2020 Scientific Reports  
By constructing the directed and weighted human movement networks and integrating human flow intensity with two neighborhood diversity metrics, we are able to pinpoint super-spreader and super-susceptible  ...  Here, we propose a quantitative and systematic framework to identify spatial super-spreaders and the novel concept of super-susceptibles, i.e. respectively, places most likely to contribute to disease  ...  Author contributions W.C.B.C. conceived and conducted the experiment and the data analysis. W.C.B.C. and R.B. analyzed the results and wrote the manuscript. All authors reviewed the manuscript.  ... 
doi:10.1038/s41598-020-75697-z pmid:33122721 fatcat:dimjnso67bhinb7eseutfi7bui

Spatial approximations of network-based individual level infectious disease models

Nadia Bifolchi, Rob Deardon, Zeny Feng
2013 Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology  
Here, we simulate epidemic spread through various contact networks and fit spatial-based models in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.  ...  Spatial models tend to predict infection probability reasonably well when disease spread is propagated through contact networks in which contacts are only within a certain distance of each other.  ...  Epidemic simulation study two -non-network models common results Increases in the number of super-spreaders, the number of connections for each super-spreader and the spatial de- Overall comparison  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.sste.2013.07.001 pmid:23973181 pmcid:PMC7185451 fatcat:xhbyn6t5dndz3lcqckpynrmpzu

The Potential Role of Direct and Indirect Contacts on Infection Spread in Dairy Farm Networks

Gianluigi Rossi, Giulio A. De Leo, Stefano Pongolini, Silvano Natalini, Luca Zarenghi, Matteo Ricchi, Luca Bolzoni, Matthew (Matt) Ferrari
2017 PLoS Computational Biology  
Direct and indirect networks showed non-trivial differences with respect to connectivity, contact distribution, and super-spreaders identification.  ...  We assessed the disease spreading potential of the direct and indirect network structures in the farm system by using data on the infection state of farms by paratuberculosis.  ...  Acknowledgments The authors want to thank the participants to ISVEE 14 Conference and to Contagion Satellite at CCS 2015 for the useful comments, and Rebecca L. Smith for the precious suggestions.  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005301 pmid:28125610 pmcid:PMC5268397 fatcat:z2ssbpat6zfw5kiq4io3m4mxam

Assessing biases in phylodynamic inferences in the presence of super-spreaders

Arata Hidano, M. Carolyn Gates
2019 Veterinary Research  
We simulated 100 epidemics of a hypothetical pathogen (fast evolving foot and mouth disease virus-like) over a real livestock movement network allowing the genetic mutations in pathogen sequence.  ...  Our objective was to quantify the degree of bias in estimating the epidemic starting date in the presence of super-spreaders using different sample selection strategies.  ...  The funding sources had no involvement in the study design, the collection, analysis and interpretation of data, and the content of and the decision to submit the article for publication.  ... 
doi:10.1186/s13567-019-0692-5 pmid:31558163 pmcid:PMC6764146 fatcat:hxxjs5qbw5ghhomaes2u7tf32y

Spatially Adjusted Time-varying Reproductive Numbers: Understanding the Geographical Expansion of Urban Dengue Outbreaks

Ta-Chou Ng, Tzai-Hung Wen
2019 Scientific Reports  
Our results show spatial heterogeneity in the transmission potential of dengue among individuals and identify the spreaders with the highest Rj during the epidemic period.  ...  the effectiveness of control measures in spatial dimension.  ...  To further explore spatial relationships of super-spreaders and dengue epidemic expansion, we illustrated the locations of super-spreaders and clustering tendency of the dengue epidemic during the rapidly  ... 
doi:10.1038/s41598-019-55574-0 pmid:31844099 fatcat:fe4otgpoafe6bn4gssqiekaa24

Network analysis for identifying and characterizing disease outbreak influence from voluminous epidemiology data

Naman Shah, Harshil Shah, Matthew Malensek, Sangmi Lee Pallickara, Shrideep Pallickara
2016 2016 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data)  
In this study, we propose a distributed approach for analyzing voluminous epidemiology data to locate and classify the most influential entities in a disease outbreak.  ...  such as vaccinations and field personnel.  ...  Social Network Analysis (SNA) focuses on human interactions in social networks, but can be applied to analyze animal epidemics as well.  ... 
doi:10.1109/bigdata.2016.7840726 dblp:conf/bigdataconf/ShahSMPP16 fatcat:zvkpxpqmdjgtjevwuox4a75ptu

Mathematical and computational approaches to epidemic modeling: a comprehensive review

Wei Duan, Zongchen Fan, Peng Zhang, Gang Guo, Xiaogang Qiu
2015 Frontiers of Computer Science  
We introduce major epidemic models in three directions, including mathematical models, complex network models, and agent-based models.  ...  In recent years, epidemiology has become increasingly integrated with mathematics, sociology, management science, complexity science, and computer science.  ...  Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank editors and three anonymous referees for their valuable comments and suggestions.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s11704-014-3369-2 pmid:32288946 pmcid:PMC7133607 fatcat:ceqn6bq22ve6hhgpiau4hwcweu

Topological dynamics of the 2015 South Korea MERS-CoV spread-on-contact networks

Chang Hoon Yang, Hyejin Jung
2020 Scientific Reports  
We present several distinct features of MERS transmission by employing a comprehensive approach in network research to examine both the traced relationship matrix of infected individuals and their bipartite  ...  The results indicate that a few super-spreaders were more likely to hold certain structural advantages by linking to an exceptional number of other individuals, causing several ongoing transmission events  ...  There were no funders who had role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.  ... 
doi:10.1038/s41598-020-61133-9 pmid:32152361 fatcat:hwp4favzs5fgvf5mlzp2juoob4

Increasing efficacy of contact-tracing applications by user referrals and stricter quarantining

Leslie Ann Goldberg, Joost Jorritsma, Júlia Komjáthy, John Lapinskas, Ivan Kryven
2021 PLoS ONE  
Our models incorporate geometric inhomogeneous random graphs to study the effects of the presence of super-spreaders and of the absence of long-distant contacts (e.g., through travel restrictions) on our  ...  total, (3) a small initial set of randomly-chosen users each refer around half of their contacts to use the CTA, achieving p% in total, and (4) for comparison, an idealised scenario in which the p% of  ...  Besides our own code, we used [80] to run simulations in parallel, and [81] to sample the four GIRGs. Lapinskas. Author Contributions Conceptualization  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0250435 pmid:34010333 fatcat:uils3g5igfb5fi53z4doxr5p3y

Importance of Interaction Structure and Stochasticity for Epidemic Spreading: A COVID-19 Case Study [article]

Gerrit Grossmann, Michael Backenkoehler, Verena Wolf
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
For instance, existence of super-spreaders leads to a higher infection peak but a lower death toll compared to interaction structures without super-spreaders.  ...  In this work, we translate an ODE-based COVID-19 spreading model from literature to a stochastic multi-agent system and use a contact network to mimic complex interaction structures.  ...  We thank Luca Bortolussi and Thilo Krüger for helpful comments regarding the manuscript. This work was partially funded by the DFG project MULTIMODE.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.05.05.20091736 fatcat:kz3gcdsnizhctjq4r5unha7tny

Increasing efficacy of contact-tracing applications by user referrals and stricter quarantining [article]

Leslie Ann Goldberg, Joost Jorritsma, Júlia Komjáthy, John Lapinskas
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
Our models incorporate geometric inhomogeneous random graphs to study the effects of the presence of super-spreaders and of the absence of long-distant contacts (e.g., through travel restrictions) on our  ...  total, (3) a small initial set of randomly-chosen users each refer around half of their contacts to use the CTA, achieving p% in total, and (4) for comparison, an idealised scenario in which the p% of  ...  Acknowledgements The work of JJ and JK is partly supported by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) through grant NWO 613.009.122.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.11.30.20240796 fatcat:agd7zgfoubapdoqlydteo7cgci

Modelling Heterogeneity and Super Spreaders of the COVID-19 Spread through Malaysian Networks

Fatimah Abdul Razak, Zamira Hasanah Zamzuri
2021 Symmetry  
This leads to a different way of calculating R0 and defining super-spreaders. Quantifying a super-spreader individual is related to the idea of importance in a network.  ...  We proposed using a measure of super-spreading directly related to R0 and that will give a measure of 'spreading' regardless of the underlying network.  ...  However, modelling the spread on networks enables and, in fact, predicts the existence of super-spreaders and clusters within the population.  ... 
doi:10.3390/sym13101954 fatcat:xg4kwnzkwnh5vd7hulodemfxna

Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance

Qingpeng Zhang
2021 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences  
in information and communications technology.  ...  Human beings are now equipped with richer data and more advanced data analytics methodologies, many of which have become available only in the last decade.  ...  Jianxi Gao and colleagues harnessed largescale crowd-sourced human mobility data to construct the temporal (daily) hierarchical networks depicting human movements within and between Metropolitan Statistical  ... 
doi:10.1098/rsta.2021.0115 pmid:34802266 pmcid:PMC8607141 fatcat:fcwoydx25reerjgvdidqngibrm

Dynamics of infectious diseases

Kat Rock, Sam Brand, Jo Moir, Matt J Keeling
2014 Reports on progress in physics (Print)  
In particular, we focus on three critical aspects of infectious disease models that we feel fundamentally shape their dynamics: heterogeneously structured populations; stochasticity; and spatial structure  ...  of the available data and a mathematical framework for prediction.  ...  Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank all those in the WIDER (Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Rearch) Centre for their help and support, in particular Lorenzo Pellis for his detailed  ... 
doi:10.1088/0034-4885/77/2/026602 pmid:24444713 fatcat:ijwhlezbhjadxeoueiltsjmyau
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