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Simulation of ECB decisions and forecast of short term Euro rate with an adaptive fuzzy expert system

Lorenzo Rizzi, Flavio Bazzana, Nikola Kasabov, Mario Fedrizzi, Luca Erzegovesi
2003 European Journal of Operational Research  
For this reason we have developed an adaptive fuzzy expert system in order to mimic the framework on which the monetary policy strategy of the ECB is based.  ...  The use of an expert system allows for modelling the ECB behaviour with the use of wider scope of knowledge, when compared with more traditional computational techniques.  ...  Acknowledgements We would like to thank Roberto Tamborini of the University of Trento, the participants at the ''Euro Conference'' held at University ''Tor Vergata'' of Rome, and three anonymous referees  ... 
doi:10.1016/s0377-2217(02)00543-x fatcat:4svrxtlkfncs5opraw33zlijey

The Integration of Artificial Neural Networks and Text Mining to Forecast Gold Futures Prices

Hsin-Hung Chen, Mingchih Chen, Chun-Cheng Chiu
2014 Communications in statistics. Simulation and computation  
The economic parameters of the proposed dataset include inflation rate, interest rate, OPEC oil production level, silver price, gold price, market index and U.S. dollar index.  ...  In this paper, an economic dataset is proposed for organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) oil studies.  ...  An adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system for short-term natural gas demand estimation: uncertain and complex environments‖.  ... 
doi:10.1080/03610918.2013.786780 fatcat:hw3jvichb5b7ppihokwfgkczge

Bayesian binary quantile regression for the analysis of Bachelor-to-Master transition

Cristina Mollica, Lea Petrella
2016 Journal of Applied Statistics  
The working group (WG) CMStatistics comprises a number of specialized teams in various research areas of computational and methodological statistics.  ...  The Econometrics and Statistics (EcoSta) and Computational Statistics & Data Analysis (CSDA) are the official journals of the CMStatistics.  ...  Therefore the final forecast may be viewed as the outcome of model and expert procedures, detailed considerations of short-term shocks, and medium-term trends.  ... 
doi:10.1080/02664763.2016.1263835 fatcat:l5eyielgxrct7hq5ljqeej5ccy

Enhanced Cash Flow Valuation in Real Estate Management by Integrating Innovative Materials and Risk Assessment

Patrick Bergmann, Endre Kamarás, Werner Gleißner, Edeltraud Guenther
2020 Sustainability  
The article contributes to risk management and decision-making for real estate projects by providing insights into the discussion and analysis of the financial performance of sustainable construction material  ...  We present a model that integrates environmental and long-term effects in the cash-flow evaluation of real estate projects, thereby increasing managerial flexibility.  ...  deviation, is used at a risk-free interest rate of 2% and a project term of T = 4 periods.  ... 
doi:10.3390/su12062201 fatcat:q7tpoagshnht5nlgu3dxsujjf4

Market Functioning and Central Bank Policy

Bank for International Settlements
2002 Social Science Research Network  
These portals provide ET platforms for institutions to complete fixed income deals and offer other services such as market research and information.  ...  The main electronic bond trading platforms that cover Hong Kong dollar debt instruments are AsiaBondPortal, BondsInAsia and Bloomberg.  ...  for low-rated short term and all long-term bonds.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.1187576 fatcat:f74axctsibe25fdcwuunrsgclm

Abstracts of Working Papers in Economics

2002 Abstracts of Working Papers in Economics  
We also discuss previous claims that policy regime changes and short-term interest rate smoothing by the Fed accounts for the theory's unconditional failure in light of our findings.  ...  We argue that previous work on the expectations theory has failed to sufficiently account for interactions between monetary policy and bond markets in the determination of long and short interest rates  ...  By simulating these models forward it is possible to derive the full forward path of short-term interest rates and hence to construct any long-term interest rate consistent with the expectations model.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s0951007900005829 fatcat:3ujwf7eg6beydavyx3ni62tdb4

Macroprudential oversight, risk communication and visualization

Peter Sarlin
2016 Journal of Financial Stability  
While VisRisk is herein illustrated with five web-based interactive visualizations of systemic risk indicators and models, the platform enables and is open to the visualization of any data from the macroprudential  ...  While VisRisk is herein illustrated with five web-based interactive visualizations of systemic risk indicators and models, the platform enables and is open to the visualization of any data from the macroprudential  ...  In terms of Fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering, a combination of clustering models and the reasoning of fuzzy logic have been introduced to the early-warning literature by finding risky clusters and treating  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.jfs.2015.12.005 fatcat:xzaexkxgdrfb5otbizdh6kjnry

Macroprudential oversight, risk communication and visualization [article]

Peter Sarlin
2014 arXiv   pre-print
While VisRisk is herein illustrated with five web-based interactive visualizations of systemic risk indicators and models, the platform enables and is open to the visualization of any data from the macroprudential  ...  We define the task of visualization in risk communication, discuss the structure of macroprudential data, and review visualization techniques applied to systemic risk.  ...  The figure is adapted from ECB (2010). naling these systemic risks at an early stage.  ... 
arXiv:1404.4550v3 fatcat:abngdwgasze6hn5uenuplaku34

Abstracts of Working Papers in Economics

2003 Abstracts of Working Papers in Economics  
These effects would be reinforced if philanthropical inventors sometimes came out with another version of an existing proprietary good.  ...  between the data and an investor's initial beliefs about the sources of return predictability.  ...  AB A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s095100790000588x fatcat:xz7czmsglzdlde73wuwjknunei

Abstracts of Working Papers in Economics

1998 Abstracts of Working Papers in Economics  
However, changes in the expected growth rate of demand, the interest rate, the capital share in output, and the price elasticity of demand all have unambiguous effects.  ...  AB When investment decisions cannot be reversed and returns to capital are uncertain, the firm faces a higher user cost of capital than if it could reverse its decisions.  ...  In both cases the outperformance of an asset class is predicted and value is added by following the strategies based on the model's forecast. Rouse, Cecilia Elena  ... 
doi:10.1017/s0951007900003715 fatcat:v7mqbbzwkveqpbazcolpnziqqi

Free Trade and Protection

1869 Scientific American  
Institute of International Education. Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation. Transfer of Knowledge Through Expatriate Nationals  ...  Economy : Foreign Loans, Financial Crises, and Debt Settlements, 1820-1990. Boulder: Westview Press. Vernengo, M. ( 2004 ) "Bretton Woods", in J.  ...  The ECB has quantified price stability in terms of an increase below or near to 2% per annum of the consumer price index for the euro area.  ... 
doi:10.1038/scientificamerican05081869-292a fatcat:4zpqxepkufbznbgsuhou7nk4ru

The impact of news on expectation formation in monetary policy, business cycles and inflation forecasts

Michael Lamla
The ECB controlled overnight interest rate has an effect on the real economy through inflation expectations. Arguably, a transparent central bank is more credible.  ...  This in turn decreases transmission lags and therefore is beneficial for the effectiveness of monetary policy. 4 Secondly, communication about the long-term inflation goal results in more credibility and  ...  As a result, the long-term interest rate should be an average of future expected short-term interest rates plus a term premium (e.g. Dotsey and Otrok, 1995) .  ... 
doi:10.5167/uzh-163693 fatcat:vyvub3cwqzffxplis7yr72rbsi

Alternative (non-animal) methods for cosmetics testing: current status and future prospects—2010

Sarah Adler, David Basketter, Stuart Creton, Olavi Pelkonen, Jan van Benthem, Valérie Zuang, Klaus Ejner Andersen, Alexandre Angers-Loustau, Aynur Aptula, Anna Bal-Price, Emilio Benfenati, Ulrike Bernauer (+43 others)
2011 Archives of Toxicology  
The selected experts were asked to analyse the status and prospects of alternative methods and to provide a scientifically sound estimate of the time necessary to achieve full replacement of animal testing  ...  Disclaimer: This report represents the opinions of the authors as individual scientists, and should not be taken to represent the positions of any institutions, including those of ECVAM and the other Services  ...  The term (Q)SAR is an umbrella term covering both cases. (Q)SARs are often incorporated, possibly in conjunction with databases, into expert systems.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s00204-011-0693-2 pmid:21533817 fatcat:7wqut2zliraqjfoxrrdjryei5e


Austral Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations
2012 Austral  
and doctorate in "International Strategic Studies," offered by the Federal University of Rio Grande do  ...  7 We chose not to include in the discussion that follows the master's course in "Strategic Studies of Defense and Security," offered by the Fluminense Federal University (UFF), and the major, master's  ...  as an agent of the system.  ... 
doi:10.22456/2238-6912.32662 fatcat:vpc7hpd3xnasheu4tyr6xeef5y

German macro: how it's different and why that matters edited by The social context for German economists: public attitudes towards macroeconomic policy in Germany 64

George Bratsiotis, David Cobham, Michael Burda, Lars Feld, Bernd Hayo, Florian Neumeier
The average inflation rate since the introduction of the euro has been 1.8%, which is consistent with the objective of maintaining price stability, interpreted by the ECB as an inflation rate that is below  ...  Inflation rates in the euro area It is highly unlikely that the ECB would have been equally comfortable or uncomfortable with inflation rates exceeding 3.0% for such an extended period.  ... 
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