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SIR-Hawkes

Marian-Andrei Rizoiu, Swapnil Mishra, Quyu Kong, Mark Carman, Lexing Xie
2018 Proceedings of the 2018 World Wide Web Conference on World Wide Web - WWW '18  
Among the statistical tools for online information diffusion modeling, both epidemic models and Hawkes point processes are popular choices.  ...  unobserved in a Hawkes process.  ...  DISCUSSION In this work, we present a previously unexplored connection between Hawkes point processes and SIR epidemic models.  ... 
doi:10.1145/3178876.3186108 dblp:conf/www/RizoiuMKCX18 fatcat:abwcl2da5nbarbaittidmoengy

Dynamic Hawkes Processes for Discovering Time-evolving Communities' States behind Diffusion Processes [article]

Maya Okawa, Tomoharu Iwata, Yusuke Tanaka, Hiroyuki Toda, Takeshi Kurashima, Hisashi Kashima
2021 arXiv   pre-print
In this paper, we propose a novel Hawkes process model that is able to capture the underlying dynamics of community states behind the diffusion processes and predict the occurrences of events based on  ...  Modeling diffusion processes and predicting future events are crucial in many applications including epidemic control, viral marketing, and predictive policing.  ...  Hawkes process is an important class of point processes for modeling diffusion processes.  ... 
arXiv:2105.11152v1 fatcat:w37eutqg4bahxjcevfybomazrm

Hawkes process modeling of COVID-19 with mobility leading indicators and spatial covariates [article]

Wen-Hao Chiang, Xueying Liu, George Mohler
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
We validate the approach on short-term forecasting tasks, showing that the Hawkes process outperforms several benchmark models currently used to track the pandemic, including an ensemble approach and an  ...  on Google mobility indices and demographic covariates in the maximization step.  ...  SIR-Hawkes process), which will be important if neural point processes are to be used in long-term forecasting.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.06.06.20124149 fatcat:dxqpaofamnenrhkh7mnz5cvchi

An Ephemerally Self-Exciting Point Process [article]

Andrew Daw, Jamol Pender
2021 arXiv   pre-print
Our study includes exploration of the process itself as well as connections to well-known stochastic models such as branching processes, random walks, epidemics, preferential attachment, and Bayesian mixture  ...  process and motivates the model contained herein as an attractive self-exciting process in its own right.  ...  Publicly available drafts of this work used the moniker "Queue-Hawkes process," but we have re-titled to avoid confusion and ambiguity.  ... 
arXiv:1811.04282v4 fatcat:7hjixdjto5httnq26bxhkzck3e

New Spatio-temporal Hawkes Process Models For Social Good [article]

Wen-Hao Chiang, IUPUI University Library, IUPUI # Defaults To Publisher, George Mohler, Mohammad Al Hasan, Murat Dundar, Jeremy Carter
2022
The Hawkes process is flexible in modeling these various applications through parametric and non-parametric kernels that model event dependencies in space, time and on networks.  ...  We apply the Hawkes bandit model to spatio-temporal data on crime events and earthquake aftershocks. We show that the model can quick [...]  ...  The first variant is the SIR-Hawkes process.  ... 
doi:10.7912/c2/2920 fatcat:t4ojgfzqyjci5bo6azftylhpii