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Adopting robust decision-making to forest management under climate change

Naomi Radke, Rasoul Yousefpour, Roderich von Detten, Stefan Reifenberg, Marc Hanewinkel
2017 Annals of Forest Science  
Finally, robust decision-making applications to forest management under climate change uncertainty were evaluated and recommendations drawn. & Results Deep uncertainty is not adequately considered in the  ...  & Key message Multi-objective robust decision making is a promising decision-making method in forest management under climate change as it adequately considers deep uncertainties and handles the long-term  ...  Quantitative overview Scenario analysis was the most applied method to find so-called robust solutions under deep uncertainty (Online Resource, Fig. 1 ).  ... 
doi:10.1007/s13595-017-0641-2 fatcat:sf5pl7j6bvcxdnpbwg3ovkd3l4

Climate policy decision making in contexts of deep uncertainty - from optimisation to robustness

Mark Workman, Geoff Darch, Kate Dooley, Guy Lomax, James Maltby, Hector Pollitt
2021 Environmental Science and Policy  
Scenarios-Focused Decision Analysis (SFDA) describes a family of methods that aim to explicitly characterise (deep) uncertainties within scenarios, and then undertake decision analysis within and across  ...  Scenario Focused Decision Analysis and Robust Decision Making We now introduce Robust Decision Making (RDM) as an exemplar of a group of tools we define as "Scenarios-Focused Decision Analysis", and outline  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2021.03.002 fatcat:gtg25eevknbzhausao2p6dxsye

Scenario driven optimal sequencing under deep uncertainty

Eva H.Y. Beh, Holger R. Maier, Graeme C. Dandy
2015 Environmental Modelling & Software  
Scenario driven optimal sequencing under deep uncertainty Environmental Modelling and Software, 2015; 68:181-195  ...  In contrast, optimisation methods for dealing with optimal sequencing under global / deep uncertainty are much less developed.  ...  Next, global sensitivity analysis is performed on the selected sequences to assess the variation (robustness) of system performance under a wide range of plausible future conditions and to determine the  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.02.006 fatcat:gfquk6uq5vcedno2bgabgljgou

Climate Change and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Rasoul Yousefpour, Marc Hanewinkel
2016 Current Forestry Reports  
Robust decision-making is a unique approach to deal with the deep uncertainty in general, but has rarely been applied to forest management.  ...  ., scenarios to meet the climate target would stay deeply uncertain for long.  ...  the sensitivity of decision outcomes to deep uncertainty about scenarios (e.g., climate change).  ... 
doi:10.1007/s40725-016-0035-y fatcat:h3xdkp5harb3tmt6iozdksyeua

Exploring national decarbonization pathways and global energy trade flows: a multi-scale analysis

Steve Pye, Christophe McGlade, Chris Bataille, Gabrial Anandarajah, Amandine Denis-Ryan, Vladimir Potashnikov
2016 Climate Policy  
Policy relevance statement In recent years, how global fossil fuel markets evolve under different climate regimes has been subject to much debate and analysis.  ...  We find that global scale models provide critical insights that complement the more detailed national analyses, and should play a stronger role in informing deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs).  ...  /K039326/1], and by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche under the Investissements d'avenir programme [ANR-10-LABX-14-01].  ... 
doi:10.1080/14693062.2016.1179619 fatcat:c2et767xzrfpticvz4hjgksydy

A safety factor approach to designing urban infrastructure for dynamic conditions [article]

Sanjib Sharma, Ben Seiyon Lee, Robert E. Nicholas, Klaus Keller
2021 arXiv   pre-print
Depending on the location, we find that adding safety factors of 1.4 to 1.7 to the standard stormwater pipe design guidance produces robust performance to the considered deep uncertainties.  ...  We quantify the upfront costs needed to achieve higher hydraulic reliability and robustness against the deep uncertainties surrounding projections of rainfall, surface runoff characteristics, and infrastructure  ...  Acknowledgements This work was co-supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through the Mid-Atlantic Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (MARISA) program under NOAA  ... 
arXiv:2102.04496v4 fatcat:3nbcp5pr55hvnnkmaqt4n6hgty

Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints

P. A Stott, C. E Forest
2007 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences  
The consistency of these results, when obtained using independent techniques, demonstrates that past observed climate changes provide robust constraints on probable future climate changes.  ...  P.A.S. funded by the UK Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs under contract PECD 7/12/37. C.E.F. was funded partially by US NSF and thanks to A. Sokolov and M.  ...  The TCR is the global-mean surface temperature change that is realized at the time of CO 2 doubling under an idealized scenario in which CO 2 concentrations increase at 1% per year.  ... 
doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2075 pmid:17569655 fatcat:ah5argllrzaeph2c3apzadpuv4

An open source framework for many-objective robust decision making

David Hadka, Jonathan Herman, Patrick Reed, Klaus Keller
2015 Environmental Modelling & Software  
discovery and trade-off analysis; and computing uncertainty/robustness metrics.  ...  This study introduces a new open source software framework to support bottom-up environmental systems planning under deep uncertainty with a focus on many-objective robust decision making (MORDM), called  ...  The authors gratefully acknowledge Riddhi Singh and Tori Ward for providing source code for the lake problem and Elmar Plischke for giving permission to translate his Matlab sensitivity analysis codes  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.07.014 fatcat:bafafuzhcbcbrc4siz4mlhx2ii

Trapped between two tails: trading off scientific uncertainties via climate targets

Derek Lemoine, Haewon C McJeon
2013 Environmental Research Letters  
Policy evaluations are more sensitive to uncertainty about abatement technology and impacts than to uncertainty about warming.  ...  We use the technology-rich GCAM integrated assessment model to assess the robustness of 450 and 500 ppm carbon targets to each uncertain factor.  ...  scenario analysis.  ... 
doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034019 fatcat:yrf764md7zfohpi4ox7bpttyre

Comparison of Robust Optimization and Info-Gap Methods for Water Resource Management under Deep Uncertainty

Tom Roach, Zoran Kapelan, Ralph Ledbetter, Michelle Ledbetter
2016 Journal of water resources planning and management  
The methods have been selected primarily to investigate a contrasting local vs global method of assessing water system robustness to deep uncertainty but also to compare a robustness model approach (IG  ...  The methods under assessment are Info-Gap decision theory (IG) and Robust Optimisation (RO).  ...  " scenario starting point for the analysis despite the deep uncertainties.  ... 
doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000660 fatcat:yzqeeratpjhb5b5iw7sklegsdm

Characterizing Climate-Change Uncertainties for Decision-Makers. An Editorial Essay

Robert Lempert, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Daniel Sarewitz, Michael Schlesinger
2004 Climatic Change  
Several research groups have derived probability distributions for climate sensitivity via statistical comparisons of climate model results to recent climate records (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001;  ...  considered in the analysis.  ... 
doi:10.1023/b:clim.0000037561.75281.b3 fatcat:qsr737f6jbh35pwguxiyu7zmvi

Comparison of Info-gap and Robust Optimisation Methods for Integrated Water Resource Management under Severe Uncertainty

Tom Roach, Zoran Kapelan, Ralph Ledbetter
2015 Procedia Engineering  
The methods under comparison are Info-Gap decision theory (IG) and Robust Optimisation (RO), with particular regard to two key issues: (a) a local vs global measure of water supply robustness and (b) a  ...  The results reveal the impact of using alternative methodologies and analysis parameters on the final intervention strategies selected.  ...  IG can tailor local robustness around the most likely scenarios which offer an alternative assessment to otherwise global or linear forms of analysis.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2015.08.955 fatcat:4fjd3xlgxngkzml7lsfkzoi2va

Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings

Chris E. Forest, Peter H. Stone, Andrei P. Sokolov
2006 Geophysical Research Letters  
The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is an organization for research, independent policy analysis, and public education in global environmental change.  ...  Further, assessments of possible societal and ecosystem impacts, and analysis of mitigation strategies, need to be based on realistic evaluation of the uncertainties of climate science.  ...  We thank many scientists who have encouraged this work including Myles Allen and Jim Hansen (MIT) and the support of the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at MIT.  ... 
doi:10.1029/2005gl023977 fatcat:kwviiltrajc43fqxmnrteij7uy

Including robustness considerations in the search phase of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

Sibel Eker, Jan H. Kwakkel
2018 Environmental Modelling & Software  
In its original inception, the search phase identifies optimal strategies for a single reference scenario for deep uncertainties, which may result in missing locally near-optimal, but globally more robust  ...  Abstract Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) is a prominent model-based approach for dealing with deep uncertainty.  ...  Step 4: Tradeoff analysis In Step 4, the candidate solutions generated under the reference scenario and the four selected scenarios are evaluated in terms of their robustness against deep uncertainties  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.029 fatcat:ufvm3j3nk5d2ljzrj4l7o5u4gy

Adaptive mitigation strategies hedge against extreme climate futures

Giacomo Marangoni, Jonathan R. Lamontagne, Julianne D. Quinn, Patrick M. Reed, Klaus Keller
2021 Climatic Change  
both well-characterized and deep climate uncertainties.  ...  Furthermore, the coupled human-Earth systems are subject to deep and dynamic uncertainties.  ...  of adaptive strategies over non-adaptive ones under consideration of key deep uncertainties.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03132-x fatcat:ebrq7ao55rfr3afqwceeuvzyby
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