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Rare Event Simulation for non-Markovian repairable Fault Trees [article]

Carlos E. Budde, Marco Biagi, Raúl E. Monti, Pedro R. D'Argenio, Mariëlle Stoelinga
2019 arXiv   pre-print
We handle DFTs with Markovian and non-Markovian failure and repair distributions (for which no numerical methods exist) and show the efficiency of our approach on several case studies.  ...  Rare Event Simulation (RES) provides techniques to reduce the number of samples in the case of rare events.  ...  Acknowledgments The authors thank José and Manuel Villén-Altamirano for fruitful discussions, who helped to better understand the application scope of our approach.  ... 
arXiv:1910.11672v2 fatcat:pqbxhwrhhncbzcm7ajfismsney

Rare Event Simulation for Non-Markovian Repairable Fault Trees [chapter]

Carlos E. Budde, Marco Biagi, Raúl E. Monti, Pedro R. D'Argenio, Mariëlle Stoelinga
2020 Lecture Notes in Computer Science  
We handle dfts with Markovian and non-Markovian failure and repair distributions-for which no numerical methods existand show the efficiency of our approach on several case studies. $ This work was partially  ...  Rare event simulation (res) provides techniques to reduce the number of samples in the case of rare events.  ...  Acknowledgments The authors thank José and Manuel Villén-Altamirano, for fruitful discussions that helped to better understand the application scope of our approach.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-030-45190-5_26 fatcat:dnetpzcdl5cpldpqgiwtphxmmy

Rare Event Simulation for Dynamic Fault Trees [chapter]

Enno Ruijters, Daniël Reijsbergen, Pieter-Tjerk de Boer, Mariëlle Stoelinga
2017 Lecture Notes in Computer Science  
This paper presents a novel method for rare event simulation of dynamic fault trees with complex repairs that requires only a modest number of simulations, while retaining statistically justified confidence  ...  Our method exploits the importance sampling technique for rare event simulation, together with a compositional state space generation method for dynamic fault trees.  ...  Rare Event Simulation for Fault Trees To develop a rare event simulation technique for repairable FTs and DFTs, we need to convert the FT into a Markov chain.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-319-66266-4_2 fatcat:luanykx6ibd4vesmjzivkqvtu4

Rare Event Simulation for Dynamic Fault Trees

Enno Ruijters, Daniël Reijsbergen, Pieter-Tjerk de Boer, Mariëlle Stoelinga
2019 Reliability Engineering & System Safety  
This paper presents a novel method for rare event simulation of dynamic fault trees with complex repairs that requires only a modest number of simulations, while retaining statistically justified confidence  ...  Our method exploits the importance sampling technique for rare event simulation, together with a compositional state space generation method for dynamic fault trees.  ...  This paper first explains fault trees, DFTs, and repairable DFTs in Section 2. Section 3 describes rare event simulation, and the Path-ZVA algorithm used in our approach.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ress.2019.02.004 fatcat:leflehzb3bfkdby53q3kyqntji

FIG: The Finite Improbability Generator [chapter]

Carlos E. Budde
2020 Lecture Notes in Computer Science  
Written in C++, FIG can outperform other state-of-the-art tools for Rare Event Simulation.  ...  This software tool specialises in Rare Event Simulation via importance splitting, and implements the algorithms restart and Fixed Effort.  ...  The author thanks Arnd Hartmanns for excellent discus-  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-030-45190-5_27 fatcat:yuhgezuz6vd75fd2rd2ka655hu

The Mercury Environment: A Modeling Tool for Performance and Dependability Evaluation [chapter]

Thiago Pinheiro, Danilo Oliveira, Rubens Matos, Bruno Silva, Paulo Pereira, Carlos Melo, Felipe Oliveira, Eduardo Tavares, Jamilson Dantas, Paulo Maciel
2021 Ambient Intelligence and Smart Environments  
The Mercury tool enables a range of models to be created and evaluated for supporting performance and dependability evaluations, such as reliability block diagrams (RBDs), dynamic RBDs (DRBDs), fault trees  ...  In this paper, we introduce recent enhancements to Mercury, namely new SPN simulators, support to prioritized timed transitions, sensitivity analysis evaluation, several improvements to the usability of  ...  The Fault Tree editor and evaluator allow modeling and evaluating availability and reliability using fault trees. FTs and RBDs differ from each other in their purposes.  ... 
doi:10.3233/aise210075 fatcat:l6vlgjw3z5hghcqjz3qf6b4rgy

Fault tree analysis: A survey of the state-of-the-art in modeling, analysis and tools

Enno Ruijters, Mariëlle Stoelinga
2015 Computer Science Review  
Concretely, we review standard fault trees, as well as extensions such as dynamic FT, repairable FT, and extended FT.  ...  This paper surveys over 150 papers on fault tree analysis, providing an in-depth overview of the state-of-the-art in FTA.  ...  We thank Ed Bouwman, Joris ter Heijne, Joost-Pieter Katoen, and Judi Romijn for their useful comments on earlier versions of this paper.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.cosrev.2015.03.001 fatcat:igudlokajzfz3l2f7izrwspsoe

Failure Transition Distance-Based Importance Sampling Schemes for theSimulation of Repairable Fault-Tolerant Computer Systems

J.A. Carrasco
2006 IEEE Transactions on Reliability  
For Markov models of repairable fault-tolerant systems, standard simulation of dependability measures tends to be expensive due to the rarity of the system failure event.  ...  For the simulation of the steady-state unavailability, failure transition distance biasing has (as failure biasing) the bounded relative error property for balanced fault-tolerant systems & balanced failure  ...  However, for CTMC dependability models of repairable fault-tolerant systems, standard simulation tends to be expensive due to the rarity of the system failure event.  ... 
doi:10.1109/tr.2006.874910 fatcat:ol6d2nhjbzgtpjtq5jncaji3ei

Tools for Performance Evaluation of Computer Systems: Historical Evolution and Perspectives [chapter]

Giuliano Casale, Marco Gribaudo, Giuseppe Serazzi
2011 Lecture Notes in Computer Science  
A review of recent works that provide new perspectives to software tools for performance modeling is presented, followed by a number of ideas on future research directions for the area.  ...  The development of software tools for performance evaluation and modeling has been an active research area since the early years of computer science.  ...  The authors wishes to thank the anonymous reviewer for the valuable comments that helped to improve the quality of the paper.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-642-25575-5_3 fatcat:lvrjwulipjcn5kaq3or4invg2e

Method for evaluating an extended Fault Tree to analyse the dependability of complex systems: Application to a satellite-based railway system

T.P. Khanh Nguyen, Julie Beugin, Juliette Marais
2015 Reliability Engineering & System Safety  
The Fault Tree (FT) is a wellknown method that efficiently analyse the failure causes of a system and serves for reliability and availability evaluations.  ...  Juliette Method for evaluating an extended fault tree to analyse the dependability of complex systems: application to a satellite-based railway system. (2014) Reliability Engineering and System Safety  ...  Acknowledgements This research was conducted as part of the GaLoROI project (Galileo Localisation for Railway Operation Innovation) supported by the European commission.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ress.2014.09.019 fatcat:dwi7itt6z5cbjllcbaoelyjv2u

Analysis of non-Markovian systems by a Monte-Carlo method

A. Dubi, A. Gandini, A. Goldfeld, R. Righini, H. Simonot
1991 Annals of Nuclear Energy  
A Monte-Carlo method is described for the analysis of the reliability/maintenance of complex systems. The methodology proposed adopts the formalism used in particle transport.  ...  CONCLUSION The results so far obtained confirm the validity of the Monte-Carlo method as used in the SPAR code for the maintenance/safety analysis of Markovian, as well as non-Markovian systems.  ...  These allow specific programming to be accommodated to model a given problem (e.g. aimed at describing the Boolean expression of the structure function, or of a branch of it, on the basis of a fault tree  ... 
doi:10.1016/0306-4549(91)90047-2 fatcat:rh24ky7l2zbbbpjeosspks7pqu

Software fault mitigation and availability assurance techniques

Kishor S. Trivedi, Michael Grottke, Ermeson Andrade
2010 International Journal of Systems Assurance Engineering and Management  
We then examine mitigation methods for Mandelbugs in general and aging-related bugs in particular. Finally, we discuss techniques for the quantitative availability assurance for such systems.  ...  We begin by classifying software faults into Bohrbugs and Mandelbugs, and identify aging-related bugs as a subtype of the latter.  ...  Some subsystems represented by fault tree leaves can have states where the system is up but with some components non-operational and undergoing repair.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s13198-011-0038-9 fatcat:ddfoxldhvfe4fhjd5o4amire2m

A unified framework for simulating Markovian models of highly dependable systems

A. Goyal, P. Shahabuddin, P. Heidelberger, V.F. Nicola, P.W. Glynn
1992 IEEE transactions on computers  
In this paper we present a unified framework for simulating Markovian models of highly dependable systems.  ...  Since the failure event is a rare event, the estimation of system dependability measures using standard simulation requires very long simulation runs.  ...  ., reliability block diagram or fault-tree) under which the system is considered operational.  ... 
doi:10.1109/12.123381 fatcat:jdk66xuornh6xaealew5ya6hti

Automated compositional importance splitting

Carlos E. Budde, Pedro R. D'Argenio, Arnd Hartmanns
2019 Science of Computer Programming  
Yet its runtime explodes when faced with rare events, unless a rare event simulation method like importance splitting is used.  ...  Rare event simulation methods (RES [58]) have been developed to attack this problem.  ...  We are grateful to José Villén-Altamirano for very helpful discussions that led to our eventual design of the expected success method.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.scico.2019.01.006 fatcat:gjgeeoaesveqpe33cc3f2ewul4

Continuous Time Bayesian Networks in Prognosis and Health Management of Centrifugal Pumps

Tyler Forrester, Mark Harris, Jacob Senecal, John Sheppard
2019 Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society, PHM  
We present the rPHM framework and apply common modeling tools used in reliability and testability analysis---dependency (D) matrices and fault tree analysis---as a basis for constructing an underlying  ...  trees to consider the impact of a set of faults common to centrifugal pumps on emerging hazards in the pump system.  ...  The Monte Carlo simulation also predicts the frequency of different types of faults and the corresponding average cost of repair for the subsystem.  ... 
doi:10.36001/phmconf.2019.v11i1.778 fatcat:4oimffkb6zctbbb4zcsaz4k4gu
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