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Qualitative Decision under Uncertainty: Back to Expected Utility

Hélène Fargier, Régis Sabbadin
2003 International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence  
Different qualitative models have been proposed for decision under uncertainty in Artificial Intelli gence, but they generally fail to satisfy the princi ple of strict Pareto dominance or principle of  ...  It is also shown that although nu merical, these expected utilities remain qualitative: they lead to two different decision procedures based on min, max and reverse operators only, generaliz ing the leximin  ...  This latter model forms a con venient framework for a qualitative expression of problems of decision under uncertainty. However, it suffers from a lack of decisiveness.  ... 
dblp:conf/ijcai/FargierS03 fatcat:umexla4iljc6xb5dwnl23ipz7y

Qualitative decision under uncertainty: back to expected utility

Hélène Fargier, Régis Sabbadin
2005 Artificial Intelligence  
Different qualitative models have been proposed for decision under uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, but they generally fail to satisfy the principle of strict Pareto dominance or principle of "efficiency  ...  It is also shown that although numerical, these expected utilities remain qualitative: they lead to different decision procedures based on min, max and reverse operators only, generalizing the leximin  ...  Giving up the quantification of utility and uncertainty has led to give up the expected utility (EU) criterion as well: the principle of most theories of qualitative decision making is to model uncertainty  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.artint.2004.12.002 fatcat:7mnqefralfdw3j2zccfn7mirxa

A Possibilistic Model for Qualitative Sequential Decision Problems under Uncertainty in Partially Observable Environments [article]

Regis Sabbadin
2013 arXiv   pre-print
This qualitative counterpart of the POMDP model relies on a possibilistic theory of decision under uncertainty, recently developed.  ...  In this article we propose a qualitative (ordinal) counterpart for the Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes model (POMDP) in which the uncertainty, as well as the preferences of the agent, are  ...  The POMDP model takes its justifi cation from the most widely used theory for decision under un certainty : the expected utility theory [Savagel954] [von Neumann & Morgensternl944).  ... 
arXiv:1301.6736v1 fatcat:fjq4anfs7fespkgtajvgbczj5a

Uncertainty and Uncertainty Tolerance in Service Provisioning

Johari Abdullah, Aad P. A. van Moorsel
2011 Journal of Internet Services and Information Security  
Secondly, we discuss our approach of providing a measure of tolerance towards uncertainty which involves the application of Bayesian and Decision Networks.  ...  One of the challenges for Internet-based service provisioning is to provide a measure of quality control to the end users.  ...  Based on the expected utility equation in Appendix C, the expected utility value for the decision to accept is 510 and 42 for reject.  ... 
doi:10.22667/jisis.2011.11.31.089 dblp:journals/jisis/AbdullahM11 fatcat:cuq5z4qxx5eqnnbu5qlhpzqqum

Types of Uncertainty

Richard Bradley, Mareile Drechsler
2013 Erkenntnis: An International Journal of Scientific Philosophy  
Ethical uncertainty arises if the agent cannot assign precise utilities to consequences. Option uncertainty arises when the agent does not know what precise consequence an act has at every state.  ...  We distinguish three qualitatively di↵erent types of uncertainty -ethical, option and state space uncertainty -that are distinct from state uncertainty, the empirical uncertainty that is typically measured  ...  in decision making under ambiguity.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10670-013-9518-4 fatcat:ppxlbfuhf5al7bup332ynmbdie

Deep Uncertainty [chapter]

Warren E. Walker, Robert J. Lempert, Jan H. Kwakkel
2013 Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science  
of the policymakerand the various actors involved in the policymaking process, and the decision options available to them.  ...  Without Abstract Uncertainty In Model-Based Decision Support The notion of uncertainty has taken different meanings and emphases in various fields, including the physical sciences, engineering, statistics  ...  Luce and Raiffa (1957) adopted these labels to distinguish between decisionmaking under risk and decisionmaking under uncertainty.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-1153-7_1140 fatcat:vlyc4inlnnbtta75qwk25itepq

Communicating uncertainty to policy makers [chapter]

Anthony Patt
2009 Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making  
To resolve this ambiguity about how best to communicate uncertainty, he offers first-best and second-best approaches.  ...  To assist in that latter task, the author suggests particular guidelines for the aspects of uncertainty that scientists need to communicate.  ...  Second, qualitative verbal descriptions of the likelihoods of important outcomes are important. Third, it is essential to identify whether uncertainty can be expected to be resolved quickly.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-90-481-2636-1_10 fatcat:5326hsbvcreild5zsi3m5rq7ne

OPTIONS, INACTION, AND UNCERTAINTY

Giuseppe Bertola
2010 Scottish Journal of Political Economy  
I do so in the context of a simple action-timing problem that does not exploit those techniques, in order to illustrates how the role of uncertainty in shaping the optimality of adoption depends on substantive  ...  I then outline the clearer implications popular and tractable continuous-time continuous processes, noting that they may fail to represent key features of some real-life business investment problems, but  ...  Thus, the expectations relevant to optimal decisions depend on the dispersions as well as on the expectation of future variables.  ... 
doi:10.1111/j.1467-9485.2009.00517.x fatcat:raineh2m55bavg5dnvwwcn2pr4

Uncertainty and exploration [article]

Samuel J Gershman
2018 bioRxiv   pre-print
These approximations utilize uncertainty about action values in different ways. Some random exploration algorithms scale the level of choice stochasticity with the level of uncertainty.  ...  Random exploration algorithms are sensitive to total uncertainty across actions, whereas directed exploration algorithms are sensitive to relative uncertainty.  ...  Under this model, the expected response 11 .  ... 
doi:10.1101/265504 fatcat:2grjbkr62red7pdjldeljrhbxa

Decision Making under Uncertainty [chapter]

2009 GIS, Environmental Modeling and Engineering, Second Edition  
The probability assigned to Borel set B f S is denoted P(B).  ...  The symbol oe represents "for every." 2 The concepts described here can be readily extended to include vectors of real numbers. 3 positive probability.  ...  a), we observe that, in approximation, the decision maker trades off the expected outcome of a lottery with its uncertainty as measured by its variance.  ... 
doi:10.1201/9781439808726-c10 fatcat:xbsei3evezbqbpgsmpt3feythq

Uncertainty, Ambiguity and Privacy

Alessandro Acquisti, Jens Grossklags
2005 Workshop on the Economics of Information Security  
In this paper we discuss the importance of ambiguity, uncertainty and limited information on individuals' decision making in situations that have an impact on their privacy.  ...  We present experimental evidence from a survey study that demonstrates the impact of framing a marketing offer on participants' willingness to accept when the consequences of the offer are uncertain and  ...  dates back to [Kni21] (although earlier discussions of the relations between risk, uncertainty, and utility can be found with [Ber38] and then [Men71] ).  ... 
dblp:conf/weis/AcquistiG05 fatcat:ra4v5kd2ujgvbbxxusr3j4g274

Risk Assessment under Uncertainty [chapter]

Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés, Victor Fernando Gómez Comendador, Luis Perez Sanz
2020 Risk Assessment in Air Traffic Management  
This chapter provides a Bayesian inference methodology to assess and evaluate the compliance with the established safety levels under the presence of uncertainty in the assessment of systems performances  ...  System safety assessment aims, through a systematic and formal process, to detect, quantify, and diminish the derived risks and to guarantee that critical safety systems achieve the level of safety approved  ...  An essential step is also to evaluate the decision-maker's utilities.  ... 
doi:10.5772/intechopen.89445 fatcat:p73sc73i5nfslilpxyr4ig25zi

De Finetti on uncertainty

A. Feduzi, J. Runde, C. Zappia
2013 Cambridge Journal of Economics  
The risk/uncertainty distinction has however never quite gone away and is currently under renewed theoretical scrutiny.  ...  would be prepared to bet for or against that event.  ...  Morgenstern's maximisation of expected utility constitutes the appropriate decision rule also in uncertain contexts.  ... 
doi:10.1093/cje/bet054 fatcat:k3p5bgny3vdcjncqy42be57wv4

Thinking Naturally about Uncertainty

Marvin S. Cohen, Jared T. Freeman
1996 Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting  
A third approach, however, called the Recognition / Metacognition model, treats decision making under uncertainty as a problem-solving process that starts with the results of recognition, verifies them  ...  Methods for handling uncertainty should be evaluated in terms of their cognitive compatibility with real-world decision makers.  ...  The decision maker is expected to treat both cases the same way.  ... 
doi:10.1177/154193129604000408 fatcat:fe7vosf4bbefxbommnx35rbnpu

Irreversibilities, uncertainty and underemployment equilibria

David de la Croix, Omar Licandro
2000 Spanish Economic Review  
JEL classification: D90 1 The "aggregation over micromarkets in disequilibrium" hypothesis, proposed by Muellbauer (1978), is very related to Hansen's idea and it was fruitfully utilized in the fixed-price  ...  This affects the qualitative properties of the equilibrium path.  ...  Since there is uncertainty concerning the productivity of capital, the representative firm of segment i chooses x it and k it in order to maximize expected profits, i.e., max kit ,xit E t−1 (f (x it )  ... 
doi:10.1007/pl00013580 fatcat:l6my52ipj5elfifmccshnoimfy
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